March 2017
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>March</strong> <strong>2017</strong><br />
THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />
www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />
Increasing Optimism…Tempered by Reality<br />
REAL ESTATE<br />
by<br />
Gene Wunderlich<br />
<strong>2017</strong> is off to an inauspicious start. I’m<br />
talking about the housing market of course,<br />
the protesting and divisiveness of politics depends<br />
on your perspective I suppose. Turns<br />
out Love Trumping Hate involves a lot more<br />
arson and assault than we thought it would.<br />
Based on December pending sales, we<br />
knew January housing was not going to be<br />
great, and it wasn’t. If you don’t many much<br />
in the pipeline you can’t close them. In spite<br />
of being down 21% from December (916 /<br />
729), sales of single family homes across<br />
the region were still up 7% over last January<br />
(679). That’s not too bad.<br />
Prices continued to ratchet up slowly.<br />
Median for the region was up just 1%<br />
over December ($327,039 / $330,127) but<br />
maintained a 6% edge over January 2016<br />
($310,211). Temecula’s median fell 5%<br />
($435,000 / $414,700) from last January,<br />
Perris stayed exactly the same at $270,000,<br />
Menifee was up 9% ($290,000 / $320,000),<br />
San Jacinto jumped 13% ($214,900 /<br />
$247,450) and most other cities posted<br />
moderate gains. Interesting to note a trend<br />
that started last year in higher price areas like<br />
Orange County and the Bay area, impacting<br />
our housing market as well. Cities with the<br />
highest median price, like Temecula and<br />
Murrieta, have experienced low single digit<br />
appreciation while more affordable areas<br />
continue to surge into double digits.<br />
This, of course, is a function of affordability<br />
and availability, both of which are<br />
suffering in some areas of the state and may<br />
be visiting our region as well. Inventory has<br />
been dropping since mid-year and has fallen<br />
33% in the past six months (2,478 / 1,658).<br />
While it’s not unusual for January inventory<br />
to fall off some, this leaves us with just 1.5<br />
months of inventory, the lowest point in<br />
over 2 years!<br />
So much depends on the mood of the<br />
state and nation over the next 100 days, and<br />
that’s a real crapshoot. At the state level<br />
we’re well on our way to drafting 3,000 or<br />
more bills for this session! (Does California<br />
really need 3,000 more laws guiding our every<br />
breath?) Regardless, we’re going to get<br />
them. For every bill that would help housing<br />
in the Golden State like Marc Steinorth’s AB<br />
53, which would establish a tax deductible<br />
savings account for first time homebuyers,<br />
there are 10 bills that would make it more<br />
difficult to develop, to buy or to finance. At<br />
recent state meetings our Chief Lobbyist in<br />
Sacramento joined others voicing cautious<br />
optimism that the pool of moderate Democrats<br />
may be sufficient to forestall some of<br />
the worst excesses possible under the new<br />
super-majority legislature. We’ll see.<br />
Equally concerning is the federal landscape.<br />
One of the new administration’s first<br />
moves removed a 25 basis point mortgage<br />
insurance premium reduction enacted just<br />
weeks before. We understand this was<br />
part of an overall roll-back and review of<br />
last-minute acts by the previous administration<br />
and our national association has<br />
presented documentation on why reinstating<br />
that particular reduction will stimulate the<br />
housing sector.<br />
Despite concerns and ‘calls-to-action’<br />
within our own ranks, we are reminded<br />
that there is very little to ‘act’ on yet. The<br />
National Association of Realtors® has been<br />
a consistent advocate for private property<br />
rights and homeownership. It isn’t news to<br />
members of Congress that we consider the<br />
mortgage interest deduction to be sacrosanct<br />
and will go to the mat over this one. Any tax<br />
reform would need to address this issue very<br />
carefully as it is generally considered one of<br />
those 3rd rail items like Social Security and<br />
Medicare. Similarly the fate of the federal<br />
backstop for mortgage insurance from Fannie<br />
& Freddie is critical to the market and the<br />
availability of a 30 year mortgage.<br />
We are encouraged by recent discussion<br />
regarding changes to both Dodd-Frank and<br />
the CFPB. Dodd-Frank was a typical kneejerk<br />
reaction to issues barely understood by<br />
the act’s namesakes. It has stifled private<br />
sector investment in the housing market,<br />
kept small local bankers out of the game<br />
completely and prevented thousands of<br />
qualified buyers from purchasing their first<br />
home. Similarly the unregulated regulatory<br />
agency that is the CFPB may be due for a<br />
comeuppance as well. One can only hope.<br />
February won’t be a great housing<br />
month but keep your fingers crossed for a<br />
Spring resurgence. Winter rains may lead to<br />
blossoming home sales.<br />
Gene Wunderlich is Vice President of<br />
Government Affairs, Southwest Riverside<br />
County Association of Realtors®<br />
27<br />
Special events?<br />
Great sales?<br />
Exciting new<br />
products?<br />
Send us your<br />
business news<br />
via our Facebook<br />
page<br />
facebook/<br />
thevalleybusinessjournal