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March 2017

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<strong>March</strong> <strong>2017</strong><br />

THE VALLEY BUSINESS JOURNAL<br />

www.TheValleyBusinessJournal.com<br />

Increasing Optimism…Tempered by Reality<br />

REAL ESTATE<br />

by<br />

Gene Wunderlich<br />

<strong>2017</strong> is off to an inauspicious start. I’m<br />

talking about the housing market of course,<br />

the protesting and divisiveness of politics depends<br />

on your perspective I suppose. Turns<br />

out Love Trumping Hate involves a lot more<br />

arson and assault than we thought it would.<br />

Based on December pending sales, we<br />

knew January housing was not going to be<br />

great, and it wasn’t. If you don’t many much<br />

in the pipeline you can’t close them. In spite<br />

of being down 21% from December (916 /<br />

729), sales of single family homes across<br />

the region were still up 7% over last January<br />

(679). That’s not too bad.<br />

Prices continued to ratchet up slowly.<br />

Median for the region was up just 1%<br />

over December ($327,039 / $330,127) but<br />

maintained a 6% edge over January 2016<br />

($310,211). Temecula’s median fell 5%<br />

($435,000 / $414,700) from last January,<br />

Perris stayed exactly the same at $270,000,<br />

Menifee was up 9% ($290,000 / $320,000),<br />

San Jacinto jumped 13% ($214,900 /<br />

$247,450) and most other cities posted<br />

moderate gains. Interesting to note a trend<br />

that started last year in higher price areas like<br />

Orange County and the Bay area, impacting<br />

our housing market as well. Cities with the<br />

highest median price, like Temecula and<br />

Murrieta, have experienced low single digit<br />

appreciation while more affordable areas<br />

continue to surge into double digits.<br />

This, of course, is a function of affordability<br />

and availability, both of which are<br />

suffering in some areas of the state and may<br />

be visiting our region as well. Inventory has<br />

been dropping since mid-year and has fallen<br />

33% in the past six months (2,478 / 1,658).<br />

While it’s not unusual for January inventory<br />

to fall off some, this leaves us with just 1.5<br />

months of inventory, the lowest point in<br />

over 2 years!<br />

So much depends on the mood of the<br />

state and nation over the next 100 days, and<br />

that’s a real crapshoot. At the state level<br />

we’re well on our way to drafting 3,000 or<br />

more bills for this session! (Does California<br />

really need 3,000 more laws guiding our every<br />

breath?) Regardless, we’re going to get<br />

them. For every bill that would help housing<br />

in the Golden State like Marc Steinorth’s AB<br />

53, which would establish a tax deductible<br />

savings account for first time homebuyers,<br />

there are 10 bills that would make it more<br />

difficult to develop, to buy or to finance. At<br />

recent state meetings our Chief Lobbyist in<br />

Sacramento joined others voicing cautious<br />

optimism that the pool of moderate Democrats<br />

may be sufficient to forestall some of<br />

the worst excesses possible under the new<br />

super-majority legislature. We’ll see.<br />

Equally concerning is the federal landscape.<br />

One of the new administration’s first<br />

moves removed a 25 basis point mortgage<br />

insurance premium reduction enacted just<br />

weeks before. We understand this was<br />

part of an overall roll-back and review of<br />

last-minute acts by the previous administration<br />

and our national association has<br />

presented documentation on why reinstating<br />

that particular reduction will stimulate the<br />

housing sector.<br />

Despite concerns and ‘calls-to-action’<br />

within our own ranks, we are reminded<br />

that there is very little to ‘act’ on yet. The<br />

National Association of Realtors® has been<br />

a consistent advocate for private property<br />

rights and homeownership. It isn’t news to<br />

members of Congress that we consider the<br />

mortgage interest deduction to be sacrosanct<br />

and will go to the mat over this one. Any tax<br />

reform would need to address this issue very<br />

carefully as it is generally considered one of<br />

those 3rd rail items like Social Security and<br />

Medicare. Similarly the fate of the federal<br />

backstop for mortgage insurance from Fannie<br />

& Freddie is critical to the market and the<br />

availability of a 30 year mortgage.<br />

We are encouraged by recent discussion<br />

regarding changes to both Dodd-Frank and<br />

the CFPB. Dodd-Frank was a typical kneejerk<br />

reaction to issues barely understood by<br />

the act’s namesakes. It has stifled private<br />

sector investment in the housing market,<br />

kept small local bankers out of the game<br />

completely and prevented thousands of<br />

qualified buyers from purchasing their first<br />

home. Similarly the unregulated regulatory<br />

agency that is the CFPB may be due for a<br />

comeuppance as well. One can only hope.<br />

February won’t be a great housing<br />

month but keep your fingers crossed for a<br />

Spring resurgence. Winter rains may lead to<br />

blossoming home sales.<br />

Gene Wunderlich is Vice President of<br />

Government Affairs, Southwest Riverside<br />

County Association of Realtors®<br />

27<br />

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