The Intelligence Review | volume 1 | issue 2 |

Will the Prospect of an Independent Kurdish
State Become Viable in 2017?
Ethan Leyshon
As Kurdish militias are effectively combating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and
filling the void of territorial control ISIS has left behind in both Iraq and Syria, the question
of Kurdish independence seems more relevant now than it has been in nearly a century.
Among the states where a significant Kurdish minority is present, it can be stated with high
confidence that only the Kurdish populations of Iraq and Syria have a viable chance of
coming closer to independence in 2017.
Background
Despite some similarities, the situation on the ground in Syria and Iraq could not be more
different. In Syria, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) has effectively established an
autonomous region in the vacuum created by the Syrian Civil War. However, while the
PYD are nominally backed by both the Russian and American governments in their fight
against ISIS, the Turkish government is heavily invested in preventing an independent
Kurdish nation in Syria. In Iraq, having practiced autonomy for nearly a quarter century,
the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) seems to be well positioned to push for
independence. While working with the Iraqi government to expel ISIS from northern Iraq,
the Kurdish leaders have also garnered support from the Turkish government, who are
assisting the Kurds without permission from Baghdad. These differing stances on the
Kurds of Iraq and Syria by the Turkish government, along with the current position that
the KRG has established inside of Iraq, lead to the primary conclusion as it relates to my
question: the Iraqi Kurds have the best chance to come closer to independence in 2017,
however unlikely that chance may be.
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