"Automotive inSIGHTS 2/2010" (PDF, 3784 KB - Roland Berger

AUTOMOTIVE 2025
Regional trade blocks such as MERCOSUR and ASEAN are
expected to grow. This will mean a shift toward low-cost
locations within those blocks. This trend will be accelerated
by rising transport costs, political regulations and
fluctuating exchange rates. Suppliers will follow the
carmakers down this road.
In the best case scenario, electric vehicles will account
for up to 10% of all new vehicle sales by 2025. Their low
range, heavy weight and high cost will limit their popularity.
Hybrids will be more popular and reach a 40% share.
PHEVs in particular combine the advantages of internal
combustion engines with those of electric powertrains,
without being dependent on the nearest charging point
(which will still not be universal by 2025). Internal combustion
engines will still account for 50% of new car sales.
By 2025, many vehicles will always be online, sending
and receiving information. Connectivity is a key factor
here. Vehicles will communicate with one another and their
environment, although we do not yet know exactly how.
Google believes C2C and C2E communications will be
integrated in cars via smart devices. The benefit of this is
that new developments can quickly become widespread
at low costs.
QUOTE: Dr. Wieland Holfelder, engineering director at
Google: "[….] we believe that by 2025, all vehicles will
be always online, either directly or via equipment passengers
bring with them, via 3G and 4G mobile phone
networks.
In other words, most data for infotainment and IT services
that are not real-time-critical will be shared online by that
time. The future is in Internet-based applications." However,
many other people we spoke to do not think it makes
sense to integrate safety-enhancing C2C and C2E applications
via an interface between a vehicle and a smart
device. OEMs could find themselves liable if clean connections
cannot be made between vehicle and device (if their
iPhone crashes or is hacked into, for example). They prefer
to integrate safety-critical C2C and C2E functionalities at
the factory, which would push back the market launch until
well after 2025. The widespread usage of such functions
would also be delayed.
The idea that cars of the future – connected via intelligent
traffic solutions – will have fewer accidents and that the
weight and cost of active and passive safety features
could therefore be reduced, is not likely to become reality
until well after 2025. Perhaps the concept could be
piloted in one of the new megacities that will have been
created by then – if city planners design a corresponding
strategy (for electric vehicles only) for the city center.
The trend of "demotorization" will first emerge in the big
cities of established industrial nations. People in the new
megacities, almost all of them in Asia, will find their values
changing rapidly. Even today, car ownership rates are fairly
low among the under-30s, and will decrease further by
2025. And the cohort effect means the next age group will
follow these behavioral patterns, even if they do not need
to financially.
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