"Automotive inSIGHTS 2/2010" (PDF, 3784 KB - Roland Berger

pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS
OF THE FUTURE
Thesis 3 – All options must be utilized to achieve
sustainable mobility
Reducing CO 2 emissions from road transport as quickly
as possible means exploiting all possible technologies
(Fig. 2). It is not enough to focus solely on new cars. With
an average vehicle age of over 8 years in Germany, for
example, a new technology requires almost a decade to
penetrate the market and affect all vehicle segments –
and only if all vehicle segments are upgraded at the same
time. We need technology that reduces CO 2 emissions
both in new vehicles and among the existing fleet on
our roads.
Thesis 4 – Gasoline and diesel engines will continue
to dominate in the medium term
The diesel engine has contributed significantly to reducing
CO 2 emissions since 1999 through the introduction of high
pressure common-rail injection systems. This has reduced
fuel consumption by approximately 30% so far. Gasoline
engines have recently become more efficient thanks to
innovative direct fuel injection systems, with further reduction
potential of 7-12% through lean combustion.
The emergence of electric vehicles is also driving the
race for new innovations in conventional powertrains.
With innovative solutions such as electrified auxiliary
units and improved combustion processes, overall engine
efficiency can be enhanced by 30% by 2020. Conventional
cars will continue to be popular as they require lower
investment, contain mature technology and can use the
existing infrastructure.
Thesis 5 – Gas fuels are experiencing a renaissance
Natural gas as a fuel has a 15-25% advantage over
gasoline in the CO 2 balance. But lower mileage, customer
safety concerns and poor infrastructure are still major
obstacles to the widespread use of natural gas vehicles,
even though natural gas is tax-exempt until 2018 in
Germany. The switch to direct injection in gasoline engines
and monovalent gas engines offer new opportunities
for more efficient use of natural gas as a fuel. Furthermore,
effective ways of liquefying natural gas can reduce
infrastructure costs and increase coverage. Compressed
natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
have a market share of around 1-2% today, with an
overall vehicle stock of close to 11 million vehicles.
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