"Automotive inSIGHTS 2/2010" (PDF, 3784 KB - Roland Berger

More documents

Recommendations

Info

16 AUTOMOTIVE 2025 Mobility concepts that include car sharing models will become increasingly widespread in mature markets. Some people might even decide not to learn to drive at all. 2. Business models, value chains, partnerships New business models are likely to arise: they will not be about just selling cars, but about integrating software and hardware, or different hardware modules. One example here is car sharing, a business that will have to be taken seriously by 2025, as the private economy moves in. Given that one car-sharing vehicle can replace up to forty cars, OEMS will have to try to integrate this business and generate other alternative sales sources – before somebody else does. C2C and C2E communication services are another example. The rising proportion of corporate owners (company cars, car hire firms, municipalities, car-sharing companies) will make it harder to achieve premium prices (buying center effect). Margins will be eroded, and there will be more direct sales. This will tend to weaken retailers' positions. On the other hand, a positive buying and service experience will become increasingly important when it comes to choosing brands and for customer satisfaction. Customer contact will become increasingly important as customers' needs become more individualized, and the retail experience must do more to justify the high prices of premium and luxury cars. Resource prices will continue to rise, and prices will fluctuate even more, driven partly by the increasing share of renewable energies. Fluctuating prices, in turn, will provide the basis for new business models (such as domestic power stations made by green power provider Lichtblick AG) and product innovations (smart metering-capable products such as the washing machines presented by Miele at IFA 2010, a consumer electronics trade fair). To ensure further investment in sustainable technologies and cope with increasing price-sensitivity, innovations/ components will not remain exclusive to a brand or product for long. Sharing components and platforms will become standard, even between different companies. Cost pressures will force the industry to keep on consolidating. 3. Staff, business organizations, change The expanding range of technologies will not lead OEMs and OESs to increase their R&D departments across the board by 2025. Many simply do not have the engineers available. Countries with aging populations will therefore be looking to extend the working lives of the workers they have (through flexible working models that reflect their personal interests and financial needs). The war for talent will escalate at the same time: a shortage of engineers and skilled specialists will inhibit growth, particularly when it comes to MINT (mathematics, IT, natural sciences and technology) graduates. Forecasts say Germany alone will have a shortage of 1.8 million specialists by 2025. As well as trying to keep older workers in the labor market longer, other approaches, which vary from country to country, are already being tried. These include numerous initiatives by private foundations and government bodies to attract children and young people to MINT subjects. We will need to encourage immigration more actively in line with labor market requirements to make up for falling birth rates. Many countries, such as Canada, Australia and Sweden, are already working actively to reverse the shortage of engineers and qualified specialists. Germany and the Netherlands are examples of countries with negative net migration and insufficient birth rates. In both countries, in particular, there are fewer young engineers (25-34) than older ones (55-64). Employee skills required in the automotive industry will also develop in line with these trends and new business models: > Be ready and able to work on a quasi-project basis in virtual organizations > Understand regional cultures, and Asian business culture in particular > Be able to work in partnerships and understand what makes partner industries like IT and utility companies tick > Be capable of managing partners in integrated mobility systems > Overall, people will need a wider range of general skills As businesses become increasingly virtual, where and when people work will matter less, hence less office space will be required; but the need to coordinate resources (locations, cultural backgrounds, languages, rules, skill levels) will increase. Successful global players will move away from centralized organizations: future business organizational structures will be "glocal", which means, global at local level. In 2025, successful businesses will have a number of regional HQs, so they can act fast locally and adapt to the cultures where their partners, sales markets and raw materials are located.
AUTOMOTIVE 2025 Trends in the emerging markets and the mature economies are diverging, along with the implications for OEMs/ OESs. Take VW Mexico, for example: here you find two separate business organizations in one, with one making vehicles for the local market and the other for export. 4. General thoughts Some of our findings do not fall into a specific cluster but are more generally applicable. A. First of all, the automotive industry needs to open up and be able to learn from other industries. From the IT industry, for one. The increasing amount of electronics in the cars, the necessary compatibility of cars with other electronic devices such as smart phones, and mobility concepts of the future will mean the automotive and IT industries will need to grow together. But the two industries could hardly be more different. > Six-month life cycles on the one hand, versus four to six years on the other > The philosophy of letting the customer test beta version products versus 36 million km testing the Mercedes E-class before market launch > Lean hierarchies in which innovations can rise quickly versus extremely formal hierarchical business organizations > Video conferencing as an integral part of daily business communication routine versus a "being there" meeting culture Then there are the utilities, for example, which have also faced changes in what people want from their products. To quote Ruth Werhahn, project manager at E-Mobility@EON: "The automotive industry now is where the utilities were a few years back, when renewable energy arrived." B. Size matters: In the automotive business, investing heavily in R&D is the key to lasting success, which is why the industry has been consolidating and companies have been getting larger for years. VW Group, for example, has been expanding its portfolio of brands. As markets change, new players will emerge who can use new business models, new technology and innovation capability to stay ahead of the competition in the short to medium term. We can expect this, in particular, at the interface between OEMs/OESs and utilities and the IT industry. In the medium to long term, however, critical size is essential. We expect things to go much the same way as with the dotcom companies, in which players of the necessary size have gained the upper hand in each segment in just fifteen years. And 2025 is fifteen years away, too! The question is whether the OEMs will let this happen, or whether they will try and integrate promising new players as they emerge? We can already see partnerships up and running as a precursor to integration (Tesla with Toyota and Daimler, BYD with Daimler and VW). C. The survival of the most flexible: In 2025, successful businesses will be those that are most flexible in terms of > The organizational structures they use > The segments they cover > How they structure their partnerships, and for how long > Regional setup > Business models As we look at how the five megatrends are affecting the three clusters, combined with the general observations noted above, it is perhaps not an overstatement to say that the automotive industry is entering a new era. Although we have a good idea of where we are at the present, how these trends and developments play out over the next decade and a half remains to be seen. As the work on our study progresses, we will be mining more specific forecasts and conclusions, and we look forward to sharing our findings with you. Wolfgang Bernhart Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com Dr. Marcus Hoffmann Principal, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Munich marcus_hoffmann@de.rolandberger.com philipp Grosse Kleimann Senior Advisor, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt philipp_grossekleimann@org.rolandberger.com 17
Page 1 and 2: AUTOMOTIVE Automotive Competence Ce
Page 3 and 4: A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD Automotive
Page 5 and 6: A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD Although ma
Page 7 and 8: A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD What then w
Page 9 and 10: A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD The greates
Page 11 and 12: MOBILITy CONCEpTS clearly sees itse
Page 13 and 14: MOBILITy CONCEpTS > Available: A ve
Page 15: AUTOMOTIVE 2025 Regional trade bloc
Page 19 and 20: BOOKS & STUDIES VISTA - New growth
Page 21 and 22: pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS OF THE FUTURE
Page 23 and 24: pOWERTRAINS AND FUELS OF THE FUTURE
Page 25 and 26: INTERVIEW - ERICH SIXT Nevertheless
Page 27 and 28: BENELUX René Seyger Phone +31 (20)

"Automotive inSIGHTS 2/2010" (PDF, 3784 KB - Roland Berger

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?