Summer 2016

SECOND WIND FOR
TEXAS LAND / Market
TEXAS RURAL LAND PRICES -- PRELIMINARY 2016 FIRST QUARTER
TEXAS LAND MARKETS?
WRITTEN BY CHARLES E. GILLILAND
RESEARCH ECONOMIST | REAL ESTATE CENTER | TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
Final year-end results indicate that
2015 Texas land market price trends
slowed considerably. Annual gains
with a statewide price of $2,440
per acre, posted a weak 0.9 percent
increase from 2014 prices. However
since the 1.4 percent decline in
2010, Texas markets have managed
to increase at a 6 percent annual
compound rate of growth. Never-theless,
the year-end annual appreciation
barely matched inflation for the year
registering no appreciation in real
terms. Fourth quarter market prices
weakened contributing to this lackluster
performance. The 110-acre typical size
indicates that sales at the small end of
the spectrum dominated the 5,176 sales.
Following those disappointing results,
at $2,496 per acre, the first quarter of 2016 statewide preliminary price increased 2.3 percent over 2015 prices. That price also
represented a 4.1 percent increase over first quarter 2015 results. That amounts to a 2.8 percent increase after adjusting for
inflation. However, the level of activity in both the number of sales and total acres sold fell short when compared to the previous
three quarters. That suggests that prices have moved up, but buyers have opted to buy fewer acres at that new price level. Overall,
the Texas land market appears to be searching for a new trend. Perhaps putting the election behind us will reduce uncertainty and
clarify market inclinations. Regionally, the Central Texas Austin-Waco-Hill Country area saw prices rise moderately. Meanwhile, the
Eagle Ford Shale-dominated South Texas market registered small declines.
Dollars per Acre
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