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2.7 Management report on the Group Expected developments and and associated opportunities and and risks risks Expected developments and associated opportunities and risks <strong>ThyssenKrupp</strong> enters the new fiscal year with confidence. Although the economic environment is growing increasingly difficult and is marked by great uncertainties, we aim to maintain sales from continuing operations at the prior-year level in 2011/2012. We will continue to drive forward the Group’s strategic development. Turbulence on the financial markets will will again again impact impact the the real real economy economy in 2012. in 2012. Economic outlook Economic forecasts subject to great uncertainties Expectations for the economy as a whole and the individual sectors in 2012 are marked by great uncertainties. For the industrialized countries in particular, the risk of a further slowdown has increased. The main reasons for this are the turbulence on the financial markets and the consequences of the sovereign debt crisis. On the other hand, despite now noticeable signs of weakening most emerging countries are still showing relatively solid growth, which limits the risk of a global recession. Gross domestic product 2011*, 2012* Real change compared to previous year in % Euro zone Germany Russia Rest of Central/Eastern Europe 2011 2012 * Forecast USA Brazil Japan China India Middle East World (0.5) 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.9 5.3 6.2 8.1 7.6 7.7 9.4 102
Management report on the Group 2.7 Management report on the Group Expected developments and associated opportunities and risks The global global automotive market will will continue to continue show moderate to show moderate growth in 2012. growth in 2012. 102 | 103 For 2012 we expect global economic growth to remain at roughly the same level as the previous year. The emerging countries should expand by just under 6% altogether, the industrialized countries by only around 1.5%. For 2013 we anticipate a similar pattern. In the euro zone GDP is expected to grow by only 0.5% in 2012, hampered by the pressure to consolidate public budgets and cautious capital investment. For Germany we expect an increase of 1.0% - driven mainly by consumer and business spending. In the USA economic growth could pick up slightly to 2.0% in 2012. It is not yet possible to assess what effects any further government stimulus programs may have. In Japan the catch-up process after the natural disaster will lead to an expansion of 2.5%. The emerging markets will remain the growth driver of the global economy in 2012. GDP growth of 8.1% is forecast for China. The other BRIC countries, too, are expected to show solid growth rates. Industrial sectors mainly with growth Flat carbon steel – The global steel market will remain on an upward trend in 2012. However, Europe and NAFTA are expected to show little if any growth in steel consumption against the background of slowing economic momentum. The main impetus will again come from the emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. In particular in China there are no signs that the demand growth will slow to any notable extent. With capacities in China and other emerging countries still increasing, steel production will continue to expand, so the situation on the raw materials markets is unlikely to ease significantly in 2012. The costs for input materials in steel production will therefore remain generally high. Global finished steel demand will rise by 5% in 2012; this corresponds to crude steel production of around 1.6 billion metric tons. Steel demand in Germany will at most be only slightly higher year-on-year at 40 million metric tons. Automotive – The international auto market will remain on a moderate growth track in 2012. Worldwide production of cars and light trucks is expected to increase by around 4% year-on-year to 77.4 million. In the USA and Japan catch-up demand will trigger above-average expansion rates of 6% and 19%, respectively. In China government curbs will restrict growth to just below 6%. Very subdued growth of only 2% is forecast for the Western European auto industry. Production in Germany will probably stagnate at the level of 2011. Machinery – The machinery sector will not maintain its very high rate of expansion in 2012, with capital spending in several countries subdued. Growth could slow to 6% in the USA, and is also expected to soften slightly in China to 13%. By contrast, production in Japan is expected to be 8% higher after the decline in the prior year. In Germany, a moderate increase of 3% on the back of still high order backlogs is forecast, which means German production will remain high. The German plant engineering sector also has a good workload for 2012.
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Annual Report 2010/2011 At the cent
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Our mission statement We are Thysse
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Our capabilities Material We combin
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Making tomorrow possible Our engine
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Letter to shareholders Dr.-Ing. Hei
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Letter to shareholders To assist ou
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Contents Our mission statement C2 F
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To our shareholders To our sharehol
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Solutions for many sectors In the f
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To our shareholders 1.1 To our shar
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To our shareholders Edwin Eichler a
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To our shareholders Wilhelm Segerat
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To our shareholders 1.4 1.4 To To o
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Management report on the Group Mana
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Lightening the load The challenge o
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Management report on the Group 2.1
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million € For the fiscal year end
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Equity-stated companies (*=Joint Ve
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Auditors’ Auditor’ report Repor
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Additional information How have Thy
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4.1 Additional information Multi-ye
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4.8 Additional information Contact
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