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Management report on the Group
2.7 Management report on the Group Expected developments and associated opportunities and risks
The global global automotive market will will continue
to continue show moderate to show moderate growth in 2012. growth in
2012.
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For 2012 we expect global economic growth to remain at roughly the same level as the previous year. The
emerging countries should expand by just under 6% altogether, the industrialized countries by only around
1.5%. For 2013 we anticipate a similar pattern.
In the euro zone GDP is expected to grow by only 0.5% in 2012, hampered by the pressure to consolidate
public budgets and cautious capital investment. For Germany we expect an increase of 1.0% - driven mainly
by consumer and business spending.
In the USA economic growth could pick up slightly to 2.0% in 2012. It is not yet possible to assess what
effects any further government stimulus programs may have. In Japan the catch-up process after the
natural disaster will lead to an expansion of 2.5%.
The emerging markets will remain the growth driver of the global economy in 2012. GDP growth of 8.1% is
forecast for China. The other BRIC countries, too, are expected to show solid growth rates.
Industrial sectors mainly with growth
Flat carbon steel – The global steel market will remain on an upward trend in 2012. However, Europe and
NAFTA are expected to show little if any growth in steel consumption against the background of slowing
economic momentum. The main impetus will again come from the emerging markets in Asia, Latin America
and the Middle East. In particular in China there are no signs that the demand growth will slow to any
notable extent. With capacities in China and other emerging countries still increasing, steel production will
continue to expand, so the situation on the raw materials markets is unlikely to ease significantly in 2012.
The costs for input materials in steel production will therefore remain generally high. Global finished steel
demand will rise by 5% in 2012; this corresponds to crude steel production of around 1.6 billion metric tons.
Steel demand in Germany will at most be only slightly higher year-on-year at 40 million metric tons.
Automotive – The international auto market will remain on a moderate growth track in 2012. Worldwide
production of cars and light trucks is expected to increase by around 4% year-on-year to 77.4 million. In the
USA and Japan catch-up demand will trigger above-average expansion rates of 6% and 19%, respectively.
In China government curbs will restrict growth to just below 6%. Very subdued growth of only 2% is forecast
for the Western European auto industry. Production in Germany will probably stagnate at the level of 2011.
Machinery – The machinery sector will not maintain its very high rate of expansion in 2012, with capital
spending in several countries subdued. Growth could slow to 6% in the USA, and is also expected to soften
slightly in China to 13%. By contrast, production in Japan is expected to be 8% higher after the decline in
the prior year. In Germany, a moderate increase of 3% on the back of still high order backlogs is forecast,
which means German production will remain high. The German plant engineering sector also has a good
workload for 2012.