Credit Management Jan:Feb 2019

VIEW FROM THE SEAFRONT
AUTHOR – David Andrews
LIFE, as someone once
said, is a work in progress. An
unfinished symphony, perhaps,
to extend the metaphor. Time
slips past, and as we count down
the coming weeks towards the
end of the epic negotiations over our future
role with Europe, I daresay I am not alone in
wondering how much can be done in just a few
short weeks.
Franz Schubert, the great Austrian
composer, must surely have thought he had a
few more decades on God’s earth to crack out
reams more beautiful compositions.
Of course, Schubert left behind a vast
oeuvre, including more than 600 secular
vocal works (mainly Lieder), seven complete
symphonies, sacred music, operas, incidental
music and a large body of piano and chamber
music. Yet while composing the song cycles
Die schöne Müllerin (D. 795) and Winterreise
(D. 911), Schubert succumbed to a dreadful
disease and was gone. He was just 31.
Pound for pound – or Euro for Euro – in the
time it took young Franz to write and oversee
the production of yet another landmark opera
and a couple of major symphonies, hundreds
of the (reputedly) finest economic and strategic
minds in Europe have singularly failed to agree
on key tenets which will decide our collective
futures going forward in this life.
BRAINLESS BREXIT
Naturally, it was always going to be a case
that hundreds of highly privileged British and
European agents of the State were never going
to be as efficient as one genius with true vision,
forging ahead to leave a legacy of great beauty
and monumental complexity within the space
of a few short years.
While a bona fide vision, a sense of urgency,
of time running short, is invariably the cross
artistic prodigies such as Schubert were
acutely aware had to be borne, politicians – for
the most part self-serving, egotistical in the
extreme, and more concerned with their own
outcomes rather than the legacy they will leave
behind – appear to have been unaware that the
clock has been ticking very loudly.
And so here we are. There can be few among
us who anticipated such a bun fight, the like of
which has not been seen within the peacetime
European landscape for 50 or so years.
The irony of the matter is that, before the
spectre of leaving Europe became a reality,
the UK was genuinely on a roll. Having spent
the best part of eight years hauling ourselves,
Sisyphus-like, back up the steepest incline
since the Great Depression, we have managed
to shoot ourselves spectacularly in both feet.
CRYSTAL BALL GAZING
Like Schubert and many another who departed
this Earth before their time, I have no facility
to see what the future holds. Many worse case
scenarios have been posited, not the least by
high ranking bankers such as Mark Carney
and other highly qualified individuals whose
sobering visions of an imperfect future for us
all would be foolish to dismiss.
But just as F Scott Fitzgerald embarked upon
‘Tender is the Night’, knowing that his health
was failing – but presumably not knowing that
he was not destined to survive long enough
to finish the great work – we will all move
forwards into an unknown future. A future
where certainties and proven economic and
social formulas of yesteryear have necessarily
been rendered obsolete.
The reality is that there is no economic
formula yet written which takes account of
an unknown. Physics and mathematics have
a certainty of outcome. The unknown does
not. We cannot forecast on a model which has
never before existed.
And while politicians and indignant
economists will insist on making strategic
comparisons to Norwegian agreements and
Canadian models and the like, this is ultimately
a strategy which lacks verisimilitude.
Here, for what it is worth, are some of my predictions for 2019:
Far fewer estate agents – euphemistically known as ‘consolidation’ in the
sector; ie, many will go to the wall a la 1989.
More crippling blows to our High Street retailers. Anticipate many more
department stores closing – and attendant job losses.
Online shopping will – assuming anyone has any money left – continue to
threaten the old status quo.
A severe slow down in the property market – consumers do not like
uncertainty. Prices of a greatly over-inflated market will necessarily come
down.
First time buyer activity will increase as a result – and expect more
government incentives in this area.
Further squeeze on the motor sales industry. There will be a raft of ultracheap
credit deals to stimulate the market – but inevitably big-ticket expenses
will suffer.
The diesel Porsche Panamera will become all but extinct. Look away now if
you have just unloaded £80,000.
An upswing in overseas travel bookings – many people will want to jump
ship. If only to regain sanity.
Upturn in the fortunes for the (lower end) of the credit industry as universal
credit restrictions bite.
Continuing low interest rates. The Bank of England will not risk constraining
spending.
A return to a more artisanal retail model – business rates will continue to fall
to stimulate High Street – this may well pave the way for the kind of shops
that people want.
A slow down in manufacturing output – leading to lay offs in key sectors.
Uncertainty does little to enhance the fortunes of order books.
Along with the above – which is not intended to be a litany of bleakness by
the way – we may well see a change of government this coming year. But as
Socrates said, all I know is that I know nothing.
David Andrews is a freelance business journalist.
The Recognised Standard / www.cicm.com / January / February 2019 / PAGE 23