En Voyage Issue#16 Flickbook

Business
ARE WE THERE YET?
BY MARK BOUSFIELD,
GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR,
RAVENSCROFT
BABY, EVEN THE LOSERS
GET LUCKY SOMETIMES
EVEN THE LOSERS
KEEP A LITTLE BIT OF PRIDE
THEY GET LUCKY SOMETIMES
Tom Petty, 1979.
You, dear reader, have the advantage of me, since,
at the time of writing – certainly in the run-up to
delivering this article – I made the classic mistake of
thinking that politicians could keep their collective
promise on the one thing they were all elected to
deliver (if you don’t believe me, go back and read
both parties’ manifestos) following the calamitous UK
general election in 2017. But here we are, none the
wiser and with a 12 April extension for Theresa May
to somehow win over all those MPs she so recently
roundly berated for failing to vote for her (dismal)
deal. You may also have the advantage over me as I
believed (at least hoped) that we had reached peak
Brexit in terms of dominating column inches. Sadly
not, and it looks like there is no escape from Brexit
dominating our news flow for weeks, months (years?)
to come – I promise to try and move on!
Brexit is often compared to a divorce, taking much
longer and costing a lot more than anyone expected
– all true so far! It can also, as historian, author and
broadcaster Niall Ferguson has pointed out, result in
the realisation that 'not all the problems were really the
fault of their ex-wife'.
Be that is as it may, whether your outlook is remain
or exit, UK politics has hit a low. William Hague said
recently this has been the worst failure of government
and parliament in two or three hundred years. While
he may well be right, it is both sad and extraordinary
that such comparisons are being made. After all,
it’s not as if both of the major political parties went
into the process on opposite sides of the argument
– following the Brexit referendum result, both were
clear that they accepted the result. What the process
has exposed, however, is the gulf between voters
and their elected representatives. Far from the usual
vote-seeking platitudes about being elected to serve,
it has become apparent that the majority of MPs think
their constituents are not only wrong on the merits of
the argument, but, despite the aforesaid manifestos,
in need of having their minds changed through that
classic EU manoeuvre, the re-vote.
It is quite amusing to see British politicians adopting
one of the tactics that most infuriates voters of all
European complexions (ask the Irish, the French, the
Dutch, the Danes and the Greeks – all of whom have
been made to vote again following a 'wrong' answer)
about the institution in the first place. But no matter,
it is clear that the Establishment is appalled by the
population’s failure to understand its duty and is thus
deploying any and all means necessary to correct it.
It will be interesting to see whether this last-minute
fiasco will finally have the economic effect that so
many have forecast since the vote on 23 June 2016.
As you know, we at Ravenscroft place very little store
by forecasting or politics, preferring to invest in sound
businesses that know their market and continue
to manage their resources to exploit competitive
advantage. What is certainly true is that doommongering
has been the order of the day since the
vote was cast. Yet, as often happens in these cases,
the fundamentals have been ignored in favour of the
narrative. Recent employment figures continue to
defy the economic Cassandras and the UK persists
in outperforming its EU rivals 'despite Brexit'. None
of this is to say that the situation won’t change, if, for
example, the UK eventually leaves without a deal. But
businesses took the pessimistic route a long time ago
(oddly enough, businesses did not trust politicians to
negotiate properly) with the vast majority, 80 per cent
according to recent reports, having prepared for the
worst case.
It is this foresight and careful management that
we vote to invest in and that gives us our cause for
optimism – deal or no deal!
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