Alu_VZ_2020_Editorial

REDAKTIONELLER TEIL
EDITORIAL SECTION
catching-up process, above all in other Asian threshold
countries (India, Indonesia, Vietnam etc.). In addition,
IKB is seeing a recovery in North America. Primarily in
aircraft construction, the utilisation of aluminium should
rise once again at the expense of composite materials.
Similarly, the utilisation of aluminium in Europe is continuing
to increase. Here, it is primarily Russia and
Ukraine which have a great need to catch up after
ending the civil-war-like confrontations. For Turkey
(one of the most important production locations of
aluminium wheel rims today), the end of the conflict
in Syria could result in further stimulation. If the country
is reconstructed, Turkey would be able to supply,
for example, extruded parts for near-construction applications.
Only slight increase in construction with
primary aluminium
In the last few years, the worldwide rise in the production
of primary aluminium has primarily been
caused by new capacities in Asia. Not only does China
now account for half of the global production but
the other Asian states have also caught up recently
(see Fig. 6).
In contrast, the increase in construction in the Gulf
states (United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain)
seems to be coming to an end by and large.
China and the rest of Asia with growth;
production of primary aluminium; in 1,000 t
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018p 2020p 2022p
Oceania America Africa China Asia without China Europe
Sources: Metallstatistik; World Aluminium; IKB Research
Figure 6
p = forecast
Although these states have a comparative advantage
for the production of primary aluminium (i.e. the favourable
process energy because gas which would otherwise
be flared is used for production) and the location
between the large consumption regions in Asia and
Western Europe is logistically favourable, the geopolitical
conflict situations are currently having impacts on
new investment decisions.
In Western Europe, the prospects of a continuation
of the sharp rise in energy costs are having impacts
on the setting-up of new capacities for the electrolysis
of aluminium. Iceland where the use of hydroelectric
and geothermal power permits the favourable
production of primary aluminium constitutes one
exception.
Although the US production of primary aluminium has
recovered slightly in the first half of 2019, it is still very
far away from earlier production levels in spite of
Trump’s punitive tariffs. Until now, the tariffs on aluminium
imports have been passed on to the end consumer
more or less completely.
All in all, we are therefore seeing only a slight rise in the
production of primary aluminium up to nearly 66 million
t until 2022. However, this then implies a continuation
of the rise in the production of recycled aluminium
which can be carried out in Europe at favourable cost
also due to the fact that just 5 % of the original input
of primary energy is necessary for production. In any
case, China is also investing in expanding its recycled
aluminium industry.
Conclusion
All in all, the global aluminium industry continues to
have good growth chances which are being borne by
the most important buyer markets. The investments in
capacities for recycled aluminium should increase in
the medium and long terms.
14 | Aluminium Lieferverzeichnis 2020