atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 08/09.2019

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atw Vol. 64 (2019) | Issue 8/9 ı August/September FEATURE | MAJOR TRENDS IN ENERGY POLICY AND NUCLEAR POWER 392 However, the measures do not affect the right of member states to determine the conditions for use of its energy resources, its choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy supply. | | Fig. 3. EU countries with power generation based on nuclear energy. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2019), Workbook). | | Fig. 4. Power generation mix of ten selected EU countries 2018 in %. (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2019), Workbook). Energy source 2010* 2014* 2017* 2030 2040 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear energy Renewables including: • Hydro • Bioenergy • Wind • Geothermal energy • Solar PV • CSP • Marine energy 202 65 216 138 290 145 28 85 1 30 1 0 177 58 212 129 410 151 40 129 1 87 2 0 170 50 217 125 478 155 44 169 1 107 2 0 84 20 272 90 794 165 60 329 1 232 4 2 | | Tab. 1. Power generation capacity in the EU-28 in GW. *at the end of each year Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, 2016 and 2018, Paris, November 2012, 2016 and 2018, respectively 43 12 284 89 877 171 64 367 2 252 7 13 Total 910 985 1,040 1,266 1,320 Accordingly, fourteen of the 28 EU member states had decided to use nuclear energy. This applies in particular to countries such as France, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden, Finland, Spain and the United Kingdom. In 2011, Germany decided to completely phase out the peaceful use of nuclear energy by the end of 2022. In the Netherlands, the share of nuclear energy is low at 3 % (Fig. 3). While political decisions were decisive for using nuclear energy or for abandoning this energy source, the availability of coal and natural gas in their own countries is a determining factor above all for the availability of these resources in each case. In the case of coal, this applies in particular to Germany, a number of Eastern European countries and Greece. Natural gas plays a major role in power generation, especially in the UK and the Netherlands, where both countries can draw on their own natural gas reserves. Sweden, Austria, Italy and France are rich in water resources for electricity generation. Denmark has particularly favourable conditions for the use of wind power. This explains – in addition to state support for this energy source – its high share of electricity generation there. In Germany, support through the Renewable Energy Sources Act has led to a six-fold increase in the con tribution of renewable energies to the electricity supply, especially wind and solar energy, since 2000 (Fig. 4). However, the advance of renewable energies was not limited to Germany. On the contrary, there has been strong expansion of electricity generation based on renewable energies in all the EU countries. This was favoured by corresponding political decisions but since the beginning of the current decade also by the sharp decline in costs, especially for PV systems and also – albeit to a lesser extent – for wind turbines. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation in the EU-28 increased from 13.8 % in 2005 to 32.0 % in 2018. The capacity of power generation plants based on renewables in the EU-28 increased by 65 % from 290 gigawatts (GW) in 2010 to 478 GW at the end of 2017. By contrast, the capacity of conventional capacities fell by 59 GW from 621 GW to 562 GW in the period from 2010 to 2017. As a result, the share of renewable energies in the total power generation capacity had increased from 32 % in 2010 to 46 % by the end of 2017. 2 Most of the decline in conventional capacity related to coal-fired power plants. In addition, there was a decrease in nuclear power plant output and the output of oil-based plants. The capacity of the gas-fired power plants has remained practically stable (Table 1). So far, the decline in conventional capacity has not been a problem for the stability of the power supply. The convergence of member states’ systems has reduced the requirements for the level of reserve capacity. In addition, excess capacities had been built up in the past which have now been drastically reduced by decommissioning. 3 Prospects of the power generation landscape Three factors are particularly important. These are the continued impetus for expansion in renewable energy plants, implementation of the coal phase-out plans of a large number of member states (Fig. 5) and the future of nuclear energy in the EU. 2 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012 and 2018, Paris, November 2012 and 2018 respectively. Feature Prospects for Development of Power Generation in Europe ı Stefan Ulreich and Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
atw Vol. 64 (2019) | Issue 8/9 ı August/September Of the total US$ 57 billion investment in power generation plants in the EU in 2018, a good 80 % (US$ 46 billion) went to renewable energy plants. The remaining US$ 11 billion was divided between nuclear energy (US$ 5 billion) and coal/gas/oil (US$ 6 billion). 3 A comparable situation is also to be expected in the coming years – with the consequence that the capacity of renew able energy plants in the EU-28 should increase compared to the end of 2017 by around two thirds to just under 800 GW by 2030. According to the New Policies Scenario, the main scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2018 of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a further increase to 877 GW is expected by 2040. 4 By contrast, fossil-fired power plants are expected to reduce capacity by around 100 GW, from 437 GW at the end of 2017 to 339 GW in 2040. This particularly affects coal, whose output is estimated by the IEA to fall by 127 GW from 170 GW to 43 GW by 2040 (Fig. 6). A similar development is also expected in a study by the EU Joint Research Centre. According to this analysis, presented in September 2018, the majority of coal-fired power plants in Europe were commissioned more than 30 years ago. On average, these plants are now 35 years old. A first wave of decommissioning is expected for the period 2020 to 2025, concentrated in the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and Spain – with the consequence that EU-wide output will fall to 105 GW by 2025. A second wave of decommissioning between 2025 and 2030 will affect coal-fired power plants, particularly in Germany, Poland, Great Britain, Bulgaria and Romania. The capacity of coal-fired power plants in the EU will fall accordingly to 55 GW by 2030. 5 The IEA also estimates that 38 GW of oil-based capacity will be decommissioned. The assumptions for natural gas are different. The capacity mechanisms agreed for the EU favour the construction of new natural gas-based facilities (Fig. 7). Perhaps somewhat too optimistically, the IEA anticipates an increase in output of around one third compared to the end of 2017 to 284 GW in 2040. In the case of nuclear energy, the age-related closures clearly exceed the expected new construction capacity (Fig. 7). Accordingly, EU-wide nuclear power plant capacity is expected to decline by almost 30 % compared to the end of 2017 to 89 GW in 2040. | | Fig. 5. Coal phase-out plans in the EU. (Source: IEA (2018), Coal 2018, Analysis and forecasts to 2023). | | Fig. 6. Development of coal-fired power plant capacity in the EU-28 from 2017 to 2040. (Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018, New Policies Scenario; information provided by the IEA Secretariat). 4 The “capacity retirement curve” of the power plant fleet In recent years, Europe has seen a preference for investment in renewable power generation compared to conventional technologies. This becomes particularly clear when looking at the installed capacity in the ENTSO-E area (Fig. 8). The share of renewable energies in installed capacity (including hydropower) increased from 34 % (2010) to 48 % (2018). For availability reasons, the FEATURE | MAJOR TRENDS IN ENERGY POLICY AND NUCLEAR POWER 393 | | Fig. 7. Decommissioning and expansion of capacities for power generation in the EU-28, 2018 – 2040. (Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2018). | | Fig. 8. Share of renewable and non-renewable power generation capacity in the ENTSO-E area (2018). (Source: ENTSO-E, Statistical Factsheets). 3 International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment 2019, Paris, May 2019. 4 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Paris, November 2018. 5 Joint Research Centre (JRC), EU Coal Regions 2018: Opportunities and Challenges Ahead, Brussels, September 2018 Feature Prospects for Development of Power Generation in Europe ı Stefan Ulreich and Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer
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atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 08/09.2019

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