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1. Close Call: “the Surge for
Survival”
Some companies will take
aggressive measures to survive.
There is a short window of
opportunity to recover from losses
as consumers relieve their cabin
fever with a surge in demand for
open spaces, culture and good
food. Those that cannot maintain
the resources to compete head-on
once restrictions are lifted will be
left behind.
2. Panic Attack: “Stay local, stay
safe”
As the system starts breaking
down – without governmental
reassurance or relief – people
take matters in their own hands.
They will start supporting
local businesses and become
extremely risk averse. Even
when governments declare the
pandemic over, people are slow
to believe and regain trust. Travel
is constrained to nearby areas.
Only hotels, restaurants and
travel providers that demonstrate
they deserve to be trusted – with
impeccable control standards and
ethical practices – will survive.
3. Recurring Nightmare: “Two
seasons, two travelers”
With no decisive action to end
the threat, Covid-19 becomes a
seasonal fact, at least for the next
few years.
For half of the year, there is a
frantic rush to enjoy good food
and air travel. For the other half,
lockdowns are mandatory. In
order to survive, the hospitality
and air travel sector needs to
find alternative business models
, pandemic castes emerge, with
the well off spending the year in
escapist luxury while the rest stay
behind. Brands need to choose
whether they will play to the elite,
and risk the wrath of the masses,
or find ways to provide affordable
thrills to those that can barely
afford to air travel.
4. Brave New Reality: “Travel
Safety by fiat”
Covid-19 is unstoppable, but also
manageable. Governments impose
rules on everything from cleaning
standards to design regulations.
They enforce regulations allowing
them to requisition resources (like
hotels, kitchens and planes) as
needed during ‘Covid-19 season,’
and quickly close borders at even
a hint of infection. Companies
accept the tradeoff of a relatively
stable and prosperous business
environment in exchange for
limits on their freedom.
So what happens with the 5
focus areas that Smart Travel Lab
described before Covid-19?
Uittenbosch: ‘Out of the 5 metathemes,
Health & Sustainability
will dominate the recovery
agenda for the next 18 months.
All companies should be on top
of these two topics, not only to be
in business and stay relevant, but
travelers will be looking at them
for a strong and positive answer”.
So what’s next?
After defining the most likely
scenarios, Smart Travel Lab &
Kantar are now working with
the first air travel organizations
to define the most concrete and
pressing challenges. These will
form the basis for new business
models and solutions that are
ready to implement and scalable
to support the industry’s recovery.
The first pilot projects should hit
the market within the next 6-8
weeks.
So, symbolically, while the
summer period is normally peak
season for the industry, we will
all be working extremely hard to
recover with the ambition to get
out stronger and better.
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