bioplasticsMAGAZINE_0901

From Science & Research
Article contributed by
Toby Heppenstall, Lucite Intl.,
Southampton, UK
The availability of
fermentable carbohydrate
as a feedstock for bio-based platform chemicals and bioplastics
Price [€/t]
Many chemicals and plastics manufacturers are
beginning to consider the opportunities presented
by Industrial Biotechnology; the biosynthesis
of bulk and fine chemicals mainly by fermentation processes
from renewable agricultural feedstocks.
Due to the widespread commercial interest in
bioethanol, much has been written about feedstock type
and availability forecasts. In general however, studies have
estimated feedstock quantities by computing ‘necessary
amounts’ from demand-side projections. A new study
by a manager in the chemical industry attempts for the
first time to derive a supply-side view of the availability
in Europe of fermentable feedstocks for the biosynthetic
industries.
Quantitative results are provided by two models developed
for the study. The first is an interactive model of potential
surplus cereal supply (including straw) based on gross
shifts in population and land usage. The second is a supply
curve for Miscanthus, a potential ‘energy crop’ feedstock
for second generation lignocellulosic fermentation. The
Miscanthus supply curve is based upon a cost model over
the whole production cycle (perennial grass crops have
very different economics to annual arable crops). Input
variables include the opportunity cost of land in different
parts of Europe, and critically, the achievable yield on
€160,00
€ 120,00
€ 80,00
€ 40,00
2.36m ha
€ 0,00
0 50.000
Figure 1, Supply
curve for Miscanthus
in Europe, with lower
section magnified.
Price [€/t]
€ 80,00
€ 70,00
€60,00 Supply Quantity / ktes
€ 50,00
30m ha
2.36m ha
2.36m ha
€ 40,00
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000
Supply Quantity [t]
different qualities of land 1 . The resulting minimum entry
price for cultivation in each region can be plotted against
cumulative quantity resulting in a supply curve as below.
The supply curve derived is consistent with the
current situation. With current prices just above €40/t,
the maximum that can afford to be paid by the power
generation industry, it is unsurprising that little more
than ‘research and development’ quantities have been
brought into cultivation in Europe. This result also
provides independent support for the commonly held view
that in the current paradigm at least; Miscanthus has
the potential to become a minor crop but not a leading
agricultural commodity.
To make predictions, these models must be placed in
some sort of context. The majority of platform chemicals
relevant to bioplastics will be produced by fermentation
and as such only fermentable feedstocks were the subject
of this study. However, the economic driver for the sector
will be the production of liquid transport fuel. The lion’s
share of output from biorefineries will be biofuels.
Therefore the mix of feedstocks available to fermentation
buyers will be determined by the optimum input for the
biofuel production process that becomes dominant,
whether or not this process is fermentation.
Framing the uncertainty in this
way sheds light on the issue from the
perspective of technological evolution.
Recognising that industrial biosynthesis
is in a period of intense and uncertain
technological upheaval, a battle for
dominance is underway. The key defining
element for all players is the dominant
design of the fuel biorefining process and
the widely accepted theory of dominant
design postulates that only one of these
processes will ultimately prevail.
Using this insight, three plausible
scenarios are derived, based on the
mutually exclusive dominance of either
2nd generation (lignocellulosic) ethanol,
2nd generation biodiesel (derived from a
36 bioplastics MAGAZINE [01/09] Vol. 4