bioplasticsMAGAZINE_0901

From Science & Research
low cost and low impact oil such as algae), and thermodynamic syndiesel. A fourth
scenario of low oil price was also considered, in which progress to ‘2nd generation’
technology biofuels is entirely absent.
Principal Biorefinery
Process
Crude
Price
HIGH
LOW
Fermentation
Dominant
‘Gasohol’
Scenario
Esterification
Dominant
‘The Algae Age‘
Scenario
‘Technology Stagnation’ Scenario
Thermochemical
Dominant
‘Synfuels’ Scenario
Figure 2: Interplay of the three Critical Uncertainties in the scenario structure
The econometric models are then tailored to each scenario: For example in
the gasohol scenario, the vast demand for carbohydrate for fermentation would
drive increased supply of both 1st generation (starchy) and 2nd generation (grassy)
crops. Assumptions are made for incorporation into the supply models, about
resulting shifts in land availability and usage, and government policy support for
growers in this context.
The resulting output suggests that an aggregate supply of between 43 and
175 million tonnes (depending on the scenario) of fermentable carbohydrate 2 is
feasible. These quantities represent an equivalent amount of ethanol to replace
between 7 and 20% of all transport fuel and would be sufficient to supply likely
total demand for bio-bulk chemicals, between eight times and forty times over.
SCENARIO Miscanthus Straw Surplus
Cereal
Others-Sugar
Others - Ryegrass
Total
‘Gasohol’ 89.7 M 55.7 M 25.7 M 9.3 M 180.4 M
‘Algae Age’ 55.7 M 13.6 M minor 68.8
‘Synfuels’ 20.9 M 55.7 M 13.6 M 90.2 M
‘Tech Stagnation’ 22 M 21.7 M 43.7 M
Figure 3: Total Supply of fermentable carbohydrate (not tonnes of commmodity) in
each scenario
As a digression it is interesting to consider the maximum purchase prices that
might be feasible for Miscanthus, depending on the relevant end-use industry
in the different scenarios; bioethanol, bio-bulk chemicals, and thermochemical.
Theoretical price points can be derived from the market price of the relevant
end-product, taking account of total production cost in each case and the cost
proportion of the feedstock. Price points are overlaid as ‘demand functions’ on the
Miscanthus supply curve as below:
Price [€/]
€100,00
€ 90,00
€ 80,00
€70,00
€ 60,00
€ 50,00
€ 40,00
€ 30,00
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000
Supply Quantity / kt
Poss Price for Bulk Chems
Figure 4: Supply curve for Miscanthus in Europe with price points
Max Price for Bioethanol
(benchmark current ethanol)
Max Price for Thermochemical (benchmark diesel, oil at $126/bbl)
Max Price for Bioethanol (benchmark petrol, oil at $126/bbl)
Price to POWER Industry
Other conclusions from the MBA thesis as well as a list of references can be
found at www.bioplasticsmagazine.de/200901
1: The author is indebted to John Clifton
Brown of IGER, Aberystwyth UK for
sharing raw yield data of Miscanthus
for all NUTS2 administrative regions in
the EU. Cultivation cost data is based
on primary research with Miscanthus
producers in th UK in 2008.
2: Note the unit mass of fermentable
carbohydrate. Different feedstock crops
have different carbohydrate content.
The assumption is made that 1 tonne
of plant carbohydrate (Starch, cellulose,
or hemiocellulose) yields 1 tonne
fermentable sugar (glucose, sucrose,
dextrose, xylose), which is a little crude
but holds theoretically true.
The author is not an economist nor a
professional research scientist. This
article summarises an MBA thesis
which drew on the body of existing
literature on industrial biosynthesis
as well as primary research with
supply-side industry professionals.
The analysis is original. The author’s
intention is to add information and
stimulate discussion in the area, not to
claim absolute accuracy.
bioplastics MAGAZINE [01/09] Vol. 4 37