Asian Sky Quarterly 2021Q1
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COMMENTARY: GLOBAL JET CAPITAL<br />
OEM BACKLOGS<br />
Q4 Backlog at Major Business Jet OEMs<br />
Bombardier Gulfstream Dassault Cessna Embraer<br />
USD Millions<br />
$30,569<br />
$33,303<br />
$27,369<br />
Q4 2018 Q4 2019 Q4 2020<br />
viii<br />
As major business jet manufacturers continued to deal with the<br />
COVID-19 pandemic, backlogs declined 17.8 percent year-over-year in<br />
Q4 2020. Much of the decline occurred early in 2020 and can be attributed<br />
to difficulty in closing deals, since potential customers could<br />
not meet with company representatives or inspect aircraft.<br />
As a group, manufacturers are optimistic about the future. Companies<br />
point to gradually increasing flight operations and low inventory levels<br />
as factors that will drive demand going forward. Many manufacturers<br />
also plan to introduce new aircraft or upgrade current aircraft over the<br />
next few years, further increasing the appeal of their products.<br />
Still, manufacturers remain conservative about production plans in 2021<br />
as they continue to balance supply and demand, keep workers safe, and<br />
restart supply chains. Guidance by individual OEMs ranges from slight<br />
declines in production, to steady production, to increases in production<br />
levels. The overall result will be steady production rates in 2021, with the<br />
potential for slight increases compared to 2020.<br />
TRANSACTIONS ($ VOLUME)<br />
Business Jet Transactions<br />
New<br />
Pre-Owned<br />
$8.8B<br />
$8.7B<br />
$8.9B<br />
(952 Units) $6.8B<br />
$6.9B (1,003 Units)<br />
(1,059 Units)<br />
$5.8B<br />
(760 Units) (738 Units)<br />
$5.1B<br />
$5.6B<br />
43.3% (629 Units)<br />
$4.8B<br />
39.2% (605 Units)<br />
(770 Units)<br />
48.4%<br />
40.4%<br />
38.9%<br />
(521 Units)<br />
43.1%<br />
46.0%<br />
35.7%<br />
50.8%<br />
56.7% 56.9% 59.6% 61.1%<br />
60.8% 54.0%<br />
64.3%<br />
49.2%<br />
51.6%<br />
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020<br />
60%<br />
YoY % Change in Transaction $ Volume<br />
40%<br />
20%<br />
0%<br />
-20%<br />
- 40%<br />
- 60%<br />
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020<br />
x<br />
Following a low in April and May, business jet transactions gradually volume was up 18 percent compared to Q2. Market improvement continued<br />
improved through the rest of 2020. Transaction unit volume was 4<br />
in Q4, with unit volume up 6 percent compared to Q4 2019 and<br />
percent higher in Q3 than the year prior. Transaction dollar volume dollar volume up 2 percent.<br />
was down 19 percent due to a changing mix of aircraft; however, dollar<br />
48 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FIRST QUARTER 2021
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