atw - International Journal for Nuclear Power | 05.2021

atw Vol. 66 (2021) | Issue 5 ı September
Uranium Supply – Sustainable
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Dear Reader, In environmental and economic policy, the term “sustainability” has a high status; it is a popular
springboard for ideas or visions for goals of any kind. The origin of the term “sustainability” can be traced back to the
Brundtland Commission, also called the World Commission on Environment and Development. In 1987, it published the
report “Our Common Future”, in which the concept of sustainable development was formulated and defined for the first
time, thus providing the impetus for a worldwide preoccupation with and public attention to the topic of sustainability.
Following its origins, the term 'sustainable' defines development “that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and choose their own lifestyles.”
In this sense, what could be more sustainable than
nuclear energy?
Keyword resource conservation: Nuclear power
plants under construction and commissioning today
will, by design, achieve technical lifetimes of 60 years
and more from the outset. For nuclear power plants in
operation today, lifetimes of 60 years are now a matter
of course, 80 years are partly under review and
100 years are under consideration.
Keyword resource availability: Both in terms of
sustainability and in terms of an investment in a nuclear
power plant that can be operated for up to 100 years,
the question of the availability of nuclear fuel arises, i.e.
with today’s nuclear fuel input, the question of uranium
resources.
Since the mid-1960s, the “Red Book” – Uranium:
Resources, Production and Demand* – by the Nuclear
Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic
Development (OECD) and the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) has provided an answer to this
question, which is periodically discussed here. The Red
Book provides a detailed and reliable insight into the
current situation of the entire uranium and nuclear fuel
supply. In addition, the Red Book provides an outlook
on the demand and supply forecast for the coming
decades. The data in the 28 th edition, which has now
been published, has been compiled with the support of
37 member states of both organisations and analyses by
the experts of NEA and IAEA. In addition, other aspects
of nuclear fuel supply are outlined, such as environmental
protection and price development.
On the uranium supply side, the Red Book identifies
a small but renewed and thus steady increase in
resources compared to 2017: according to the tiered list
classified by cost, a total of 8.070 million tonnes of
uranium at extraction costs < US$ 260/kgU (or < US$
100/lbU) are reported as reserves on the cut-off date of
January 1, 2019. This is 0.1 % more than two years
earlier. In the previous report, the same increase was
recorded. The main cause is seen in the changed market
situation with lower revenues on the uranium extraction
side, which is reflected in lower efforts in the search
and exploration of new uranium deposits. Natural
uranium is available in sufficient quantities for nuclear
power plant needs, in the short and medium term as
well as in the long term, which has created significant
price pressure that has caused the uranium price to fall
from its last high in 2007 of around US$ 130/lb U 3 O 8 to
the current level of around US$ 30/lb U 3 O 8 ; in the
meantime, in 2016, a low of just under US$ 20/lb was
recorded. This is associated with lower global uranium
exploration activities and consequently lower reserve
growth – although more new uranium sources were
found than uranium mined for energy production in
the same period. The current Red Book shows that
China, India, Canada, Kazakhstan and the USA were
leading in the uranium extraction sector, i.e. exploration
and establishment of mines, in the period from 2016 to
2018. The investments made in Canada alone were
higher than those of the next five countries in total.
Expenditures totalled approximately US$ 1.8 billion.
Global uranium production in 2019 was 54,244 tU,
about 1 % higher than in the previous year 2018 but
about 16 % lower than in 2016. 92 % of the uranium
demand of about 59,200 t in 2019 was thus covered by
current production and 8 % by so-called secondary
sources, i.e. the return of uranium from reprocessing or
former military material and stockpile withdrawals.
With regard to medium-term security of supply and
the extent of future uranium production, the authors of
the Red Book point to a balanced constellation until
2040. The existing uranium mines, those currently
being developed and those planned, will foreseeably
cover the uranium demand even in the scenario of
a high increase in nuclear energy from currently
396,000 MW worldwide to 626,000 MW in 2040.
Today’s reserves of 8,070 million tonnes of uranium
are sufficient to cover the current nuclear fuel demand
for 135 years. In addition, resources are shown to be in
the order of another 15 million tonnes of uranium. On
the nuclear fuel supply side, there is thus neither a
supply shortage nor an acute need for action.
In addition, the innovation potential of nuclear
technology offers further perspectives; on the uranium
extraction side, for example, the tapping of the uranium
reservoir in the world’s oceans, which is quasi-infinite
according to current estimates, up to advanced fuel
cycles or new nuclear fuels such as thorium, which
would expand today’s resources by a factor of 100 and
more.
Uranium supply is therefore a sustainable factor of
nuclear energy, which also offers future generations
sufficient potential for utilisation and even the urgently
needed expansion of power generation capacities.
Christopher Weßelmann
– Editor in Chief –
*) Uranium 2020:
Resources, Production
and Demand, A Joint
Report by the OECD
Nuclear Energy
Agency and the
International Atomic
Energy Agency, NEA
No. 7551, Paris, 2020
EDITORIAL
Editorial
Uranium Supply – Sustainable