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IMF revises global<br />
growth forecasts<br />
downward<br />
Growth forecast for Türkiye was revised upward to 4% in 2022<br />
from 2.5% in the previous report. Türkiye’s economy is expected<br />
to expand 3.5% in 2023, up from April’s forecast of 3%, the<br />
Washington-based institute data showed.<br />
ANKARA – The International Monetary Fund has recently cut its global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 amid high<br />
inflation, a slowdown in China, and the continued Russian war on Ukraine.<br />
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the global economy is projected to grow 3.2% this year, revised 0.4 percentage<br />
points downwards from the previous forecast in April.<br />
Growth is expected to moderate in 2023 to 2.9%, down 0.7 from April’s projection.<br />
Downgrades for the world’s two largest economies, China and the US, as well as for India, are driving the downward revisions to global<br />
growth during the two-year period.<br />
The US economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2022 and 1% in 2023, revised down by 1.4 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points,<br />
respectively.<br />
This was due to disappointing growth in the first two quarters with weak private consumption and the erosion of household purchasing<br />
power and the expected impact of a steeper tightening in monetary policy.<br />
The IMF lowered its growth projections for China by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively in 2022 and 2023,<br />
driven by extended lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis. China’s GDP is now foreseen to rise by 3.3% this year and 4.6%<br />
next year.<br />
Growth forecast for Türkiye was revised upward to 4% in 2022 from 2.5% in the previous report. Türkiye’s economy is expected to<br />
expand 3.5% in 2023, up from April’s forecast of 3%, the Washington-based institute data showed.<br />
Growth in the euro area is also revised 0.2 percentage points downward to 2.6% this year and by 1.1 percentage points to 1.2% next<br />
year, reflecting the fallout from the war in Ukraine as well as the assumption of tighter financial conditions.<br />
The outlook for India has been revised downward 0.8 percentage points, to 7.4% in 2022, led by less favorable external conditions and<br />
more rapid policy tightening.<br />
The IMF underlined that consumer inflation is surging faster than expected, fueled by food and energy prices besides lingering supply-demand<br />
imbalances.<br />
The fund upgraded its inflation forecasts by 0.8 percentage points for both 2022 and 2023, hitting 8.3% and 5.7%, respectively.<br />
“The outlook has darkened significantly since April. The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years<br />
after the last one,” according to IMF’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.<br />
2022 August Middle Asia<br />
88