SUSTAINABLE BUS 2022-09

OUTLOOKS
Interact Analysis is a
market research firm with
a specific department for
truck, bus and off-highway
electrification. Here on
Sustainable Bus Magazine
we host a contribution
from the research analyst
Jamie Fox.
FORECASTING 2022 E-BUS SHARE IN EUROPE
MARKET
DOUBLING
Over 6,000 battery-electric buses are set to
be registered in 2022 in Europe, according
to Interact Analysis’ forecast. Upfront price
remains the main barrier to adoption
In 2021, we estimate that 3,471 urban
BEV buses were registered in Europe,
22% of the total of 15,923 buses. That’s
far behind China but far ahead of most
of the rest of the world. According to our
country level database from our report on
Hybrid and Electric Trucks and Buses the
UK and the Scandinavian countries were
well ahead of that 22% figure, while much
of the rest of Europe was behind. The leaders
in BEV sales in 2021 were Germany
with 575 BEV buses, the UK with 550 and
France with 512.
The Netherlands has already moved to close
to 100% electric buses as well, but its lower
total bus market means that, even so, its
BEV shipments are still far behind those of
France and Germany.
2022 was already expected to be a strong
year for electric buses, but the effects of
the Russian invasion of Ukraine have given
the market a boost as countries in Europe
seek energy independence in addition
to existing goals around air pollution and
climate change.
E-bus market to grow 100% in ‘22
We currently project 6,155 BEV buses
in Europe in 2022, or 39.5% of a total of
15,591. This assumes a significant number
of orders in the second half of the year (considering
that the registrations from January
to June were 1,768, see page 6) and assumes
that there will not be a (major) recession in
the second half of the year.
The above numbers do not include fuel cell
vehicles, which are currently about 1% of
the total and growing. They also don’t include
intercity buses, where BEV has a
much smaller penetration.
The majority of buses will still be fossil fuels
in 2022 for various reasons. One is available
supply: the production of electric vehicles
cannot be tripled overnight. Battery gigafactories
do not go from design to mass production
in a matter of months, either. Companies
are clearly planning for big increases but this
will play out steadily over the next 3-4 years.
Supply chains in 2022 have been difficult,
slowing down production. A second reason
is that the dependency on Russian fossil
fuel is, especially for some countries such
as Germany, more a dependency on gas
than oil. While less diesel buses reduces de-
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