EU Elections

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS
expected to lose seats, resulting in a reduction
of the core of MEPs supporting
integrationist and progressive legislation.
And now for the good news.
Due to their
inherent
xenophobia,
collaboration
among
far-right
parties in
the European
Parliament
is often
fractious.
The projected gains of far-right
parties are relatively modest
Models from Europe Elects and the European
Council on Foreign Relations
(ECFR) suggest that the combined
seat share of the rightwing European
Conservatives & Reformists (ECR) and
far-right Identity and Democracy (ID)
groups may increase from 18 percent in
the current parliament to 24-25 percent
in the next. While this would be an impressive
feat, it's hardly a far-right takeover
of the EP. The centre-right European
People’s Party (EPP) is poised to maintain
its status as the largest group, holding
around 25 percent of the seats, followed
by the centre-left Socialists & Democrats
(S&D) group, which is expected to suffer
some moderate losses.
The centre will (mostly) hold
(but there is a catch)
Collectively, the centre-left, centre-right,
and liberal parties are projected to still
hold more than 50 percent of the seats in
the parliament. Despite anticipated losses,
the Greens are likely to retain most
of their seats, too, ensuring the continuation
of a broad pro-European majority.
However, legislative behaviour in the EP
is characterised by fluidity, and less cohesion,
than in many national parliaments,
with coalitions forming on a per-issue basis.
As the left-of-centre camp shrinks, the
EPP and the liberals may align more frequently
with the rightwing and far-right,
bringing about a marked rightward shift
in certain policy fields (e.g. environment).
The far-right remains
politically divided
Due to their inherent xenophobia, collaboration
among far-right parties in the
European Parliament is often fractious.
Currently, some eight far-right MEPs are
unaffiliated, while far-right parties form
the (nationalist and eurosceptic) Identity
and Democracy (ID) group, and 20 ideologically
more-diverse parties sit as the
European Conservatives and Reformists
(ECR). Orbán's Fidesz is considering
joining either group, but potential disagreements
over Orbán's stance towards
Russia may lead some current ECR members
to leave in that scenario. And there
is even speculation that the (mainstream
right) European People's Party (EPP)
could offer membership in the club to
Meloni's Brothers of Italy.
The presence of far-right MEPs
in the chamber shows that
European democracy actually
works
For four decades, spanning from the
early 1950s to the early 1990s, "Europe"
operated as an elite project with minimal
public involvement. Paradoxically, the
increasing levels of far-right mobilisation
against and within the EU can be viewed
as evidence that European integration
has become so politicised that it can no
longer proceed by stealth. In any case, it
forces the pro-European parties to take a
stand and effectively campaign for their
vision of Europe.
The rise of the far-right is not
unstoppable
Three decades of research indicate that
the gradual decline of the centre-left and
centre-right, coupled with the ascent
of the far-right, is structurally rooted in
the transformation of European societies
and economies. Nevertheless, this
research also underscores that the voter
potential of the far-right is not limitless,
and that mainstream parties retain substantial
agency to influence the political
process to their advantage. ◄
About
Kai Arzheimer
Kai is a professor of politics and
political sociology at Johannes
Gutenberg University Mainz, Germany.
His primary focus lies in the
study of far-right extremism and
radicalism in Europe.
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