EU Elections

EUOBSERVER
The Berlaymont HQ of the
European Commission illuminated
by the Ukrainian flag,
on 23 February 2024, to mark
the two-year anniversary of
the Russian invasion.
Source: European Commission
of Palestinian children and women in
return, amid legal accusations of a literal
genocide. Both wars threaten to escalate
before the EU vote in June.
Russian battlefield gains saw France suggest
sending Nato troops to Ukraine in
February. EU diplomats fear Russia could
also attack Moldova or cause clashes
in the Western Balkans to frighten the
West. Meanwhile, Israel’s mass-killing
of Palestinians could ignite a wider Middle
East war with Lebanon and Iran,
prompting ever-angrier pro-Palestinian
protests in EU capitals, and raising the
risk of anti-Western terrorist attacks.
But for Kevin Cunningham, a politics
lecturer at the Technological University
in Dublin, EU voters are still more likely
to care about kitchen-sink issues, such as
the economy or immigration. “Matters
pertaining to domestic politics, such as
the relative popularity of the government
… would overwhelm any signal pertaining
to international events,” he said.
Pan-EU voting trends are more visible
since 2019 on migration and climate
change, but not on foreign policy, he noted.
And only a few individual countries,
such as those EU member states near the
Russian frontline in the Baltics or eastern
Europe, or those with histories of strong
Even if you
have Russia
escalating
with some
new event,
I don’t think
it’ll have a
true impact
on EU
elections.”
Nicolas Tenzer
pro-Palestinian feeling, such as Ireland,
might be affected, said Cunningham.
“Party positioning and responses might
be influenced in eastern and north-eastern
European states,” he said. Middle
East escalation would be most felt in
Irish and Spanish politics, he said.
Looking at the EU heartland of France,
Nicolas Tenzer from the Paris School of
International Affairs, echoed Cunningham’s
analysis. French far-right leader
Marine Le Pen has deep Russia ties, but
her voters don’t care even if Putin has become
more toxic since 2019, Tenzer said.
“If we ask a Le Pen voter, ‘do you support
Ukraine’? he or she will say: ‘Of course’.
If you ask if Russia is a threat, most will
say OK. But if you ask what’s the main
problem for you, they’ll say ‘migration,
security, purchasing power, the elites,’
and probably the question of Russia will
come 10th. So, even if Le Pen voters disagree
with her on Russia, they agree with
her on all that matters for them.” Tenzer
said.
“Even if you have Russia escalating with
some new event … I don’t think it’ll have
a true impact on EU elections,” he added.
A Gaza-escalation would be felt even
less, he predicted, even though it might