The pilot area of Auronzo di Cadore (Belluno) - Università Ca

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Box 1 The report in brief 2 / Veneto Region’s case study: Auronzo di Cadore Climate change is already significantly affecting the European Alpine Region beyond the average temperature signals that have been registered at a global level (IPCC 2007). Not even climate sceptics may deny the evidence of a 50% decrease of glaciers’ volume since 1850 (Castellari 2008). Establishing whether this change is human-induced or not remains beyond the scope of this study, which explores what it may imply for winter tourism in the Alps and how local development can be driven to take this new state into account. 2.1 / Research objective The ultimate aim of this study was to discuss about the future of Auronzo with its people through a significant set of representatives, and more specifically about the prospects for revitalising winter tourism’s performances in a sustainable manner and the possible strategies to achieve that goal. This report discusses the activities carried out by the research team in order to achieve this objective. Context / Municipality of Auronzo di Cadore located in the province of Belluno, in the Veneto Region, in the North-east of Italy. It covers a vast area (22.000 ha) which includes Misurina with its lake and the most famous mountain of the Dolomites, namely the “Three Peaks of Lavaredo” part of the UNESCO world heritage since 2009. Problem / How to develop winter tourism in the next 40 years, in a context of climate change scenarios and market demand that are not favourable? Objectives / To compare four adaptation strategies: a. the pursue of the traditional downhill ski-intensive paradigm (SKINT), b. an alternative light ski-oriented post-modern development (ALTSKI), c. the process of diversification and enlargement of tourist offer beyond-snow (BYDSNW), d. no change from present situation or, in other words, “business as usual”(BAU). Of specific interest / The focus on holistic and dynamic socio-ecosystem analysis; / The involvement of local actors in a participatory process; / The treatment of spatial heterogeneity. Methods & tools / Implementation of the NetSyMoD framework for participatory modelling and decision support, and in particular the fol- 12
Fig. 2 Map of the Municipality of Auronzo di Cadore lowing combination of approaches and tools: 1. Social network analysis (AGNA, Pajek) 2. Conceptual mapping (IHMC Cmap) 3. Geographic Information System (Idrisi) 4. System dynamics (Simile) 5. Agent-based modelling (AWS1.0) 6. Decision-support system (ClimAlpTour e-tool) 2.2 / Pilot area’s description: Auronzo di Cadore The Municipality Auronzo di Cadore is located in the province of Belluno, in the Veneto Region, in the north-east of Italy (see Figure 2). It covers a vast area (22,000 ha), which includes Misurina with its lake and the “Three Peaks of Lavaredo”, the most famous mountains of the Dolomites, part of the UNESCO world heritage since 2009. The town Auronzo di Cadore (866 m on the sea level) hosts nearly the entire population of the municipality of approximately 3,600 inhabitants. It is located in the Ansiei River’s valley, on the shores of the artificial Santa Caterina Lake. The lake basin is 3 km long and is endowed with beach facilities that periodically host motor nautical and canoe competitions. Misurina is a small settlement 25 km from Auronzo, placed at an altitude of 1,754 m beneath the Three Peaks of Lavaredo (Figure 3), which are accessible both through several mountain paths and through a toll regulated carriageway. The local economy depends on tourism, which at present is focused primarily on the summer season, whereas the winter season remains weak, with only 25% of yearly arrivals (Regione Veneto 2009). Indeed, hiking (200 km of signed mountain paths and 10 alpine refuges) and relax are the main elements of attraction. The total hosting capacity is of approximately 7,300 beds of which around 1,700 in the hotel sector and the remainder in the extra-hotel sector (B&Bs, lodgings, and so forth). 75% of the hotels’ beds are located within 1 or 2 starred facilities. In 2008, 63,700 arrivals and 305,400 tourist nights were registered, showing a slight decrease from the previous year. The last 10 years have witnessed the increase of arrivals but the contraction of average stays. Notwithstanding the presence of two small downhill ski-areas and two 13
Page 1: Climate change and its impacts on t
Page 4 and 5: work group Balbi S. 1,2 , Bonzanigo
Page 6 and 7: 5.1.4 5.2 6 6.1 6.1.1 6.2 6.3 7 Fig
Page 8 and 9: Preface The mountain area of the Ve
Page 10 and 11: 1 / Introduction: the ClimAlpTour p
Page 12 and 13: Fig. 1 Project’s structure for st
Page 16 and 17: Fig. 3 The Three Peaks of Lavaredo
Page 18 and 19: conceived during the EU FP5 project
Page 20 and 21: culating environmental indicators,
Page 22 and 23: Box 2 SNA in brief 3 / Phase 1 / Ac
Page 24 and 25: (3) As it appears, tourists were ex
Page 26 and 27: Tab. 4 Characteristics of Auronzo
Page 28 and 29: Tab. 6 List of actors to invite to
Page 30 and 31: Box 3 Participatory development of
Page 32 and 33: Fig. 8 GIS map of areas of interest
Page 34 and 35: Fig. 10 Strategy SKINT after brains
Page 36 and 37: Tab. 10 Factors characterising wint
Page 38 and 39: Box 4 DSS design in brief 5 / Phase
Page 40 and 41: CLIMATE SCENARIO Tab. 13 CURRENT A1
Page 42 and 43: Fig. 15 Example of Google Earth bas
Page 44 and 45: 5.1.3 / Agent-Based Model (AWS1.0 )
Page 46 and 47: Fig. 17 ClimAlpTour e-tool’s cata
Page 48 and 49: Fig. 20 Indicators’ clustering 46
Page 50 and 51: Fig. 21 Weight elicitation exercise
Page 52 and 53: Fig. 23 Strategies ranking after we
Page 54 and 55: the need of defining a commonly agr
Page 56 and 57: ponentially increased the number of
Page 58: References 56 Balbi et al. (2011).

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