The pilot area of Auronzo di Cadore (Belluno) - Università Ca

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Fig. 3 The Three Peaks of Lavaredo (2.999 m) cross-country ski-centres, some hotels do not even open for the winter season. The four ski-lifts of Mount Agudo, which reach a maximum elevation of 1,600 m, connect seven ski-pistes for a total 15 km. In the locality of Palus San Marco, halfway between Auronzo and Misurina, there lays the Somadida Forest, one of the province’s largest, which becomes a crosscountry ski-centre (with nine loops of a total 52.5 km) during the winter season. The Marmarole sled-dog centre and an ice-kart circuit are also located in Palus. In addition, Misurina, which has an hosting capacity of approximately 500 beds is endowed with two ski-lifts of Col de Varda (from 1,756 m to 2,220 m) that connect five ski-pistes, and 17 km of cross-country ski loops. Recently, the Community Council begun to consider options for stimulating winter tourism. At present, there exist several projects of skiareas development. The most ambitious is located in Marzon valley, a few km from the main village, which would connect the valley to the ski-area of Misurina (with an average altitude over 2,000 m). After a preliminary consultation with the local public administration, there emerged their preference for a study on how to develop winter tourism in the next 40 years, in a context of climate change (warming effect on snow availability) and market demand (ageing population) that is not favourable. 2.3 / NetSyMoD methodology for the ClimALpTour project The chosen methodology, named NetSyMoD (Network Analysis - Creative System Modelling - Decision Support), is a flexible but comprehensive methodological framework that was developed during several years of research conducted by Prof. Carlo Giupponi (www.netsymod.eu). In order to facilitate the decision-making process, this methodological approach assembles various tools that aim primarily at the identification of key actors within a given decision-making context, and then at their involvement in those develop- 14
Fig. 4 Principali componenti metodologiche dell’approccio NetSyMoD ment phases where models of analysis are constructed (Figure 4). The NetSyMoD logo (middle of Figure 5) is a symbolic picture of the limited resources available (e.g. water in the carafe), and of the various users (glasses) with different needs (varying quantity and colour). The main phases that constitute the NetSyMoD fabric are: 1. Actors’ analysis / to identify all the potential carriers of interest/ experts on the matter under discussion. The proposed method suggests the organisation of brainstorming sessions with a limited sample of stakeholders, all of whom should be grounded on the issue, who sin- 15 gle out those most apt to attend the participatory phases. A “snow-ball” technique is often applied as it allows selecting a whole group of actors interested in the decision-making project, whether directly or indirectly. This phase includes a Social Network Analysis (SNA), which aims to represent the relationship between the identified stakeholders of a given social network. Such analysis permits to highlight roles, responsibilities, and relationships of every actor within that network, which in turn may lead to a second selection of stakeholders to invite to the successive phases. This process both limits the risk for the participatory process to be hindered by some powerful groups and ensures a high rate of representativeness whilst at the same time maintaining the number in a manageable size. 2. Problem Analysis / In this phase the problem (or conflict) at hand is scrutinised from various perspectives and viewpoints. The environment in which the problem is embedded is explored and the relevant factors identified. The problems faced by environmental resource planners and managers are complex and their drivers interwoven. It is necessary to identify the most relevant aspects, by focusing on which the major changes can be attained. The exploration of the problem includes analyses of legal and institutional frameworks, as well as the economy on various spatial levels and the state of environment. Future development of main drivers and pressures are simulated using models which assess alternative scenarios. Different stakeholders (identified in previ-
Page 1: Climate change and its impacts on t
Page 4 and 5: work group Balbi S. 1,2 , Bonzanigo
Page 6 and 7: 5.1.4 5.2 6 6.1 6.1.1 6.2 6.3 7 Fig
Page 8 and 9: Preface The mountain area of the Ve
Page 10 and 11: 1 / Introduction: the ClimAlpTour p
Page 12 and 13: Fig. 1 Project’s structure for st
Page 14 and 15: Box 1 The report in brief 2 / Venet
Page 18 and 19: conceived during the EU FP5 project
Page 20 and 21: culating environmental indicators,
Page 22 and 23: Box 2 SNA in brief 3 / Phase 1 / Ac
Page 24 and 25: (3) As it appears, tourists were ex
Page 26 and 27: Tab. 4 Characteristics of Auronzo
Page 28 and 29: Tab. 6 List of actors to invite to
Page 30 and 31: Box 3 Participatory development of
Page 32 and 33: Fig. 8 GIS map of areas of interest
Page 34 and 35: Fig. 10 Strategy SKINT after brains
Page 36 and 37: Tab. 10 Factors characterising wint
Page 38 and 39: Box 4 DSS design in brief 5 / Phase
Page 40 and 41: CLIMATE SCENARIO Tab. 13 CURRENT A1
Page 42 and 43: Fig. 15 Example of Google Earth bas
Page 44 and 45: 5.1.3 / Agent-Based Model (AWS1.0 )
Page 46 and 47: Fig. 17 ClimAlpTour e-tool’s cata
Page 48 and 49: Fig. 20 Indicators’ clustering 46
Page 50 and 51: Fig. 21 Weight elicitation exercise
Page 52 and 53: Fig. 23 Strategies ranking after we
Page 54 and 55: the need of defining a commonly agr
Page 56 and 57: ponentially increased the number of
Page 58: References 56 Balbi et al. (2011).

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