14490 full.pdf - Georgia Department of Community Affairs

As the preceding table illustrates, the capture rates for the proposed project ranges
from 1.0% for a one-bedroom unit to 4.8% for a two-bedroom unit. The overall project
has a capture rate of 3.4%. This is an excellent ratio of support for a family project and
indicates that there is sufficient support for the proposed project. The proposed
project should have no negative effects on the existing Tax Credit projects in the
market given these excellent capture ratios and the limited supply of recently
developed and new housing in the market.
ABSORPTION
Although not all are included in this report, The Danter Company has developed
additional methodologies to analyze support for a proposed project through 30+ years
of market research. Two primary indicators of the success of a project are stepup/down
support (internal support from conventional rentals) and comparable
market rent analysis (evaluation of the value of the proposed rents). These
calculations have been made to assist in estimating absorption.
The proposed South Albany Village is expected to have units available in June 2004.
When responding to only income-qualified tenants, absorption of the 132 proposed
units is expected to average 12 to 14 units per month, resulting in a 9.0- to 10.5-month
absorption period to achieve a 93% occupancy level.
Prior studies have shown that absorption tends to be seasonal, with up to 64% of
annual absorption taking place in the "peak" summer months (May through August).
The shoulder season (the two months on either side of the peak season) generally
accounts for approximately 24% of annual absorption. The "off" season, November
through February, typically accounts for the remaining 12% of absorption. While
these percentages do not hold true in all markets, they give a good indication of the
potential seasonal variations in absorption.
H. SUPPLY ANALYSIS
1. FIELD SURVEY OF CONVENTIONAL APARTMENTS
A total of 5,837 conventional apartment units in 59 projects were surveyed in the Site
EMA. A total of 4,704 of these units are in 46 market-rate developments. The
remaining 1,133 units are located in 13 subsidized developments. There are no
vacancies among these units. Following is an analysis of the market-rate and
subsidizied units in the EMA.
IV-38