download - UvA DARE

10
The Electoral
Consequences of Low
Turnout in European
Parliament Elections
Cees van der Eijk, Hermann Schmitt
and Eliyahu V. Sapir
10.1 Introduction
Since their first occurrence in 1979 the direct elections of the
European Parliament (EP) have been characterized by low turnout, and 2009 reaffirmed
this pattern. The lowest levels of turnout in 2009, 20 percent or less, were
registered in Slovakia and Lithuania. In other countries turnout reached higher
levels, with rates of over 90 percent in Belgium and Luxembourg (where voting is
compulsory), and (for non-compulsory voting countries) highest rates of 79 percent
in Malta and 65 percent in Italy. But, irrespective of the actual levels, in all countries
– including those with compulsory voting – turnout was lower, and often by large
margins than what one would normally find in their national first-order elections
– which could be parliamentary or presidential. This is true without exception for
all countries, and it has been the case without exception in all EP elections since the
first one in 1979. Averaged across all member states, turnout is just under two thirds
of what was registered in the most recent national general election before the 2009
EP elections. Obviously, there is some variation in this ratio, and in some countries
– the Czech Republic, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia –
EP turnout dropped to less than half the rate in national elections.
The low levels of turnout in EP elections have given rise to a number of concerns,
which have been persistent elements in public debate and scholarly research since
1979. Most of these relate to the causes of low turnout,1 while the consequences
of low turnout have received less attention (but, see references in footnote 3). It is