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Norway has attempted to regulate and control the income from oil by creating a
fund which invests the income abroad and sets limits to how much of the fund can
be used in the national economy.
By investing the income in foreign countries and saving it for the pensions of
future generations, most of the wealth from oil is kept out of the country but not
out of the minds of voters. The strong growth of the fund creates frustrations as
voters, and some of the parties (most notably the populist Progress Party), as well
as interest groups point to problems and issues that are not solved despite the accumulation
of money. The parliamentary elections in 2001 and 2005 saw record losses
for the incumbent parties despite the fact that economic conditions were favorable
at both elections. It is likely that the growing oil fortune created expectations that
government policies could not meet. The ensuing voter frustrations may have contributed
to incumbency losses.
In the 2009 election the pattern was reversed. The financial crises now dictated
an increase in spending by government and the oil wealth came in handily for this
purpose. Survey data show that voters gave good marks to how the government
handled the crisis. The three parties in power received almost the same support (in
sum) as in 2005 and were able to stay in power. In this case the oil fortune may have
been a blessing. Now it remains to be seen if the government is able to reign in the
overspending to get back to the 4 percent rule. The political consequences of tighter
use of money may well increase incumbency losses at the next election.
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Peter Aimer for valuable suggestions.
Notes
1 These are the two populist wing parties on the left-right scale in Norwegian politics. At
present, following parliamentary elections in September 2009, there are seven parties
represented in parliament. Two are left-of-center parties (the Socialist Left and Labour),
three are centrist parties (the Center Party, the Christian People’s Party, and the Liberals),
and two are right-of-center parties (the Conservatives and the Progress Party).
2 Identical wording has been used in all surveys. Personal economy: “We are interested in
how people have it economically nowadays. Would you say that you and your household
have a better or worse economy than a year ago? Is it much better or a bit better? Is it
much worse or a bit worse? National economy: Would you say that the economic situation
in the country has become better in the last 12 months, almost as before or worse?
Would you say much better or a bit better? Would you say much worse or a bit worse?”
3 The wording of the question (which has been the same in all four surveys) is as follows:
“Let’s think about two people, A and B discussing a present question. We provide you
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