ICEM11 Final Program 9.7.11pm_ICEM07 Final Program ... - Events

Abstracts Session 56
2) HUMAN RELIABILITY-BASED MC&A MODELING FOR EVALUATING
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PROTECTING NUCLEAR MATERIAL (wP-59379)
Felicia A Durán, Gregory D. Wyss, Sandia National Laboratories (USA)
Material control and accountability (MC&A) operations that track and account for critical assets at nuclear facilities provide a
key protection approach for defeating insider adversaries. MC&A activities, from monitoring to inventory measurements, provide
critical information about target materials and define security elements that are useful against insider threats. However, these activities
have been difficult to characterize in ways that are compatible with the path analysis methods that are used to systematically
evaluate the effectiveness of a sites protection system. The path analysis methodology focuses on a systematic, quantitative evaluation
of the physical protection component of the system for potential external threats, and often calculates the probability, P(E),
that the PPS is effective in defeating an adversary who uses that attack pathway. In previous work, Dawson and Hester observed
that many MC&A activities can be considered a type of sensor system with alarm and assessment capabilities that provide reoccurring
opportunities for detecting the status of critical items. This work has extended this characterization of MC&A activities as
probabilistic sensors that are interwoven within each protection layer of the PPS. In addition, MC&A activities have similar characteristics
to operator tasks performed in a nuclear power plant (NPP) in that the reliability of these activities depends significantly
on human performance. Many of the procedures involve human performance in checking for anomalous conditions. Further
characterization of MC&A activities as operational procedures that check the status of critical assets provides a basis for applying
human reliability analysis (HRA) models and methods to determine probabilities of detection for MC&A protection elements...
3) RISK-BASED SECURITY COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: METHOD AND EXAMPLE
APPLICATIONS (w/oP-59381)
Gregory Wyss, John Hinton, John Clem, Consuelo Silva, Felicia A Durán, Sandia National Laboratories (USA)
Decision makers wish to use risk-based cost-benefit analysis to prioritize security investments. However, understanding security
risk requires estimating the likelihood of attack, which is extremely uncertain and depends on unquantifiable psychological factors
like dissuasion and deterrence. In addition, the most common performance metric for physical security systems, probability
of effectiveness at the design basis threat [P(E)], performs poorly in cost-benefit analysis. It is extremely sensitive to small changes
in adversary characteristics when the threat is near a systems breaking point, but very insensitive to those changes under other conditions.
This makes it difficult to prioritize investment options on the basis of P(E), especially across multiple targets or facilities.
To overcome these obstacles, a Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development project has
developed a risk-based security cost-benefit analysis method. This approach characterizes targets by how difficult it would be for
adversaries to exploit each targets vulnerabilities to induce consequences. Adversaries generally have success criteria (e.g., adequate
or desired consequences and thresholds for likelihood of success), and choose among alternative strategies that meet these
criteria while considering their degree of difficulty in achieving their successful outcome. Investments reduce security risk as they
reduce the severity of consequences available and/or increase the difficulty for an adversary to successfully accomplish their most
advantageous attack...
SESSION 56 — ADVANCED L/ILW TECHNOLOGIES - PART 2 OF 2 (1.21)
1) APPLYING FLUID DYNAMICS SIMULATIONS TO IMPROVE PROCESSING AND
REMEDIATION OF NUCLEAR WASTE (wP-59172)
Kelly J Knight, Jon M. Berkoe, Brigette M. Rosendall, L. Joel Peltier, Chris A Kennedy, Bechtel National (USA)
Transport and processing of hazardous nuclear waste for treatment and storage can involve unique and complex thermal and
fluid dynamic conditions that pose potential for safety risk and/or design uncertainty and also are likely to be subjected to more
precise performance requirements than in other industries. From an engineering analysis perspective, certainty of outcome is essential.
Advanced robust methods for engineering analysis and simulation of critical processes can help reduce risk of design uncertainty
and help mitigate or reduce the amount of expensive full-scale demonstration testing.
This paper will discuss experience gained in applying computational fluid dynamics models to key processes for mixing, transporting,
and thermal treatment of nuclear waste as part of designing a massive vitrification process plant that will convert high and
low-level nuclear waste into glass for permanent storage. Examples from industrial scale simulations will be presented. The computational
models have shown promise in replicating several complex physical processes such as solid-liquid flows in suspension,
blending of slurries, and cooling of materials at extremely high temperature. Knowledge gained from applying simulation has provided
detailed insight into determining the most critical aspects of these complex processes that can ultimately be used to help guide
the optimum design of waste handling equipment based on credible calculations while ensuring risk of design uncertainty is minimized.
2) LIFETIME PERFORMANCE OF ASME AG-1 SECTION FK RADIAL FLOW FILTERS (wP-59170)
CHARLES WAGGONER, Michael Parsons, Paxton Giffen, Mississippi State University;
Jaime Rickert, Institute for Clean Energy Technology (USA)
A series of 18 filters Section FK filters have been tested. This included testing two different configurations of 2000 cfm filters,
12 remote change filters and 6 safe change filters. Testing consisted of lifetime performance evaluations using three different
aerosol challenges and two different relative humidity/temperature conditions. Challenge aerosols ranged in mass median diameter
(MMD) size from 500 nm (alumina) to 3000 nm (Arizona road dust). All testing was conducted consistent with NQA-1 standards.
Test data were continuously collected for volumetric airflow, air temperature, relative humidity, up and downstream particle
size distribution, up and downstream particle count, and filter differential pressure.
Data provided in this paper include the mass versus differential pressure (dP) loading curves demonstrating loading capacity
as a function of particle size. Results of mass loading are shown to follow current models for smaller aerosols, but large particle
challenges demonstrated higher loading capacities than expected. Data will also be provided to demonstrate changes in the filter
pack geometry during latter stages of loading (at differential pressures greater than 12-14 in. w.c. dP). This change in pleat geom-
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