ICEM11 Final Program 9.7.11pm_ICEM07 Final Program ... - Events

Session 17 Abstracts
SESSION 17 — APPLYING STRATEGIC PLANNING, DECISION-MAKING AND
RISK REDUCTION METHODOLOGIES IN EM (5.7)
1) CAN SUSTAINABILITY BE APPLIED TO OUR ENVIRONMENTAL
REMEDIATION CHALLENGES? (w/oP-59148)
Peter Booth, Vicky Gaskin, WSP Environment and Energy (UK)
There are many environmental remediation challenges around the world today with a radiological connotation. These in turn
relate to all aspects of the nuclear industry life cycle as well as the NORM industries and consequences of accidents /incidents.
In reality, apart from one or two major exceptions in a few counties who have extensive budgets allocated to environmental
remediation, we do not generally see a lot of real progress in the protection of human health and the environment from legacy issues.
It is important therefore to determine why this is the case and if there is anything that can be undertaken to improve the situation.
There are a number of reasons potentially leading to this lack of progress, namely;
• A lack of available funding;
• The diversion of funds to other issues deemed to be a greater priority;
• No practical experience in resolving such problems;
• Lack of established regulatory and/or procedural infrastructure.
More often than not when environmental remediation challenges exist, the decision makers only tend to look for final solutions.
If such final solutions cant be achieved, often because of funding restrictions, then little or no progress is generally made.
However, there is the potential through…
2) EVOLUTION OF PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT MODELING IN THE US (w/oP- 59334)
Paul Black, John Tauxe, Neptune and Company, Inc. (USA)
Performance Assessment under DOE Orders and NRC regulations are evolving from the deterministic modeling that was performed
in the 1990s, to the probabilistic modeling that is being performed in current PA efforts. This evolution has also seen a change
from bottom-up process modeling to top-down system modeling, which is better suited for probabilistic modeling performed with
the goal of supporting decision analysis. This evolution is presented, with a description of how process modeling can be used effectively
to support system modeling, and how system modeling can be used effectively in a probabilistic environment to support PA
decisions such as disposal optimization, closure, and long-term management and maintenance. The decision analysis process implied
by this approach follows the basic tenets of Bayesian methods, the scientific method, and DOE’s as low as reasonably achievable
process, and allows DOE’s performance assessment maintenance program to become operational and measurable. Technical nuances
in this type of PA modeling such as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods that can be applied to such complex, dynamic, nonlinear,
non-monotonic models, and issues associated with proper model scaling are also presented. Specific examples are presented
from performance assessment modeling conducted at several radioactive waste disposal facilities in the US.
SESSION 18 — ECONOMIC ANALYSES, MONITORING STRATEGIES AND PROJECT
MANAGEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT (5.6)
1) DELIVERING VALUE FOR MONEY - TRUST AND VERIFY? (wP-59253)
Alastair Laird, Project Time & Cost Inc. (USA)
Accurate estimates for national Environmental Management remediation work programmes are an essential ingredient of
ensuring that plans can be adequately funded. They also form the basis of value measurement as the work is executed on an annual
or programme basis. However, the inherent uncertainties of many of the EM and decommissioning tasks, both in terms of the
technical challenges faced, options available, end states to be achieved; and the general risks and uncertainties associated with the
hazard and its characterisation means that many estimates were always going to be subject of very high levels of uncertainty.
In 2002 the United Kingdom Nuclear Liabilities Estimate was quoted as £48Bn when the government restructured the UK civil
nuclear industry and set out the basis for forming what was to become the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA). By 2005
the NDA had assessed the costs as £56Bn but by 2008 the costs had significantly increased to £73Bn and continue to rise. How
does this relate to the more immediate challenges of working off the plan and demonstrating Value for Money can be achieved in
the near term? In parallel the US Department of Energy EM Office introduced its best-in-class initiative in 2007 – the…
2) THE TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL OPTIMIZATION OF THE
FRENCH GEOLOGICAL REPOSITORY PROJECT (w/oP-59275)
Rodolphe Raffard, Thibaud Labalette, Andra (France)
The French Act of 28 June 2006 made the choice of reversible geological repository for long term management of high level
and long-lived intermediate level waste. Andra is in charge of designing, building and operating the future industrial repository
Cigéo. Current major issues consist in preparing the application to be examined in 2015, planning the construction so that operation
would start in 2025 and optimizing the design on both technical and economical points of view.
The Dossier 2005 -provided by Andra prior to the 2006 Act- established the feasibility of the project, especially towards compliance
with safety and reversibility. Design options were presented at that time with the objective of demonstrating feasibility without
ruling out possibilities of further optimization.
Along with the scientific and technical review of Dossier 2005, a number of design optimization topics were identified in 2006.
Working groups involved Andras specialists as well as external experts. A particular attention was given to (i) the industrial experience
of waste producers and (ii) the characteristics of the clay layer investigated in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground
Research Laboratory.
The 2006 optimization topics were prioritized taking into account their economical impact and the development plan of the
project. They have been implemented…
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