Manitoba Climate Change Task Force - International Institute for ...

2. Climate Change and Manitoba
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MCCTF Report 2001 — Manitoba and Climate Change: Investing in our future
How is Manitoba’s Climate Changing?
“Manitoba is a sensitive, vulnerable region and the current process of climate change
is increasing our vulnerability and the number of extreme events (e.g., droughts,
floods, permafrost shift).”
Mike Balshaw • MWB Consulting Ltd.
Manitoba will experience
earlier and more severe climate change than many other parts of the world,
largely due to our northern geography and location in the centre of the continent.
What’s more, the importance of natural resources in our economy and the
expansive, fragile nature of our northern environments have increased
Manitoba’s exposure to the effects of climate change.
The province is expected to experience average temperature increases of 4-6
degrees Celsius by the end of this century. This is at the higher end of the range
of warming that is predicted globally. 1 A mean temperature increase of this
magnitude may not sound like much, but we know that our environment
responds radically to temperature changes of even 1-2 degrees Celsius.
Temperature changes greatly affect precipitation, water levels and other factors
that are important to the environment and to Manitoba’s economy. Overall,
precipitation is expected to increase, but will be less predictable and probably
concentrated in severe weather events. Spring is predicted to arrive earlier and
be warmer and wetter, leading to increased risk of flooding. Summer temperatures
are expected to rise, leading to higher evaporation, though summer precipitation
will probably decline by 10-20 per cent. While the growing season will be
longer, water and drought management could become significant challenges for
Manitoba. In the fall, warmer temperatures would result in more frost-free days.
And very sharp average temperature increases of 5-8 degrees Celsius could be
expected in the winter. These changes would have major implications for all
sectors. 2
1 See, for example, Canadian centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis; CCC AGCM2 global plots at
http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca. For a broader range of estimates of warming on the Canadian Prairies, see
Herrington, Ross, Brian Johnson and Fraser Hunter. Volume III: Responding to Global Climate Change in the
Prairies. In The Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation. Environment Canada, 1998.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/ccs_e.htm. For predicted mean global temperature changes between 1990 and
2100, see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, Third Assessment Report. Summary
for Policy Makers, p.13. http://www.ipcc.ch/.
2 Manitoba and Climate Change: A Primer. Winnipeg; Manitoba Clean Environment Commission and International
Institute for Sustainable Development, 2001. See also Herrington, Ross, Brian Johnson and Fraser
Hunter. Volume III: Responding to Global Climate Change in the Prairies. In The Canada Country Study: Climate
Impacts and Adaptation. Environment Canada, 1998. http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/ccs/ccs_e.htm.