avril 2000 - Chambre de la sécurité financière

The Rapid Ageingof the Population:It’s enough to rip your hair out!By Lissia de Bellefeuille16Avril 2000All the demographic studies confirm it:Quebec’s birth rate is dropping and lifeexpectancy is increasing. Result: the agepyramid is turning upside down, thusweakening certain socio-economic aspectsof our society. The rapid ageing of thepopulation is turning the youngergenerations’ hair white, and with just cause.Today, we are forced to recognize that the number ofelderly people will perforce increase. By 2030, the percentageof Quebeckers aged 65 and over will doublefrom 12% to 24%, thereby resulting in higher socialcosts. All we have to do is to think of certain public servicesthat this segment of the population will requiremore of: the health care system, social services and theRégie des rentes du Québec, for example. But it is notjust the socio-economic factors applicable to allQuebec’s society that will be affected; democracy willbe as well. The number of seniors as compared to thenumber of young people will tip the scales in terms ofvoting power. Let’s see what the statistics reveal withrespect to this imminent impact.HEALTH ON A STRETCHERFirst, an ageing population means more health problems,medical consultations and, therefore, more governmenthealth spending. According to the Bureau dela statistique du Québec (BSQ), a senior costs the governmentroughly two times as much as a young person.And if we look at the demographic forecasts ofthe Institut de la statistique du Québec, a large increasein the 65-and-over group is expected, that is, anincrease of 122% which would swell the ranks to twomillion. Under certain projections, health and socialservices costs are expected to triple from $13 to $40 billionbetween 1998 and 2050, with costs for stays inlong-term care facilities topping the list.THE QPP HITS OLD AGE IN 2031The Régie des rentes du Québec, for its part, must besecretly fearing that its coffers will “go bald.” Eventhough all Quebec workers must contribute to its universalinsurance plan, it has become doubtful whetherthe money in the pension fund will be sufficient toensure the comfortable retirement of the younger generation.Yet, based on an actuarial valuation of theQuebec Pension Plan (QPP), assuming a 7% contributionrate in 1999 and successive increases prescribed bylaw, the Plan will be able to meet its obligationsthroughout the projection period, or until 2050.So much the better if the QPP is ready because, in 2031,the number of seniors should peak since it will consistin large part of the many generations born at the endof the 1950’s, reported Hervé Gauthier and LouisDuchesne in their book Le vieillissement démographiqueet les personnes âgées au Québec (1991). They add thattheir ranks could number between 1.9 and 2.0 million.As a comparison, Quebec’s population now stands atan estimated 7.3 million and is expected to grow to7.8 million in 2026. It should therefore come as no surprisethat the youth are worried about the money runningout by the time they retire, which explains theirgrowing fascination with complementary (private)plans, such as the well-known RRSPs, to ensure theirretirement fund. The advantage of this type of plan isthat it supplements the basic income pensionersreceive under the public plans.[1] Since April 1, 1999, the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) groups the responsibilities and operations of the Bureau de laStatistique du Québec (BSQ), the Centre de recherche et de statistiques sur le marché du travail (CRSMT), the Institut de recherche et d’informationsur la rémunération (IRIR) and Santé Québec.