avril 2000 - Chambre de la sÃ©curitÃ© financiÃ¨re

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The Rapid Ageingof the Population:It’s enough to rip your hair out!By Lissia de Bellefeuille16Avril 2000All the demographic studies confirm it:Quebec’s birth rate is dropping and lifeexpectancy is increasing. Result: the agepyramid is turning upside down, thusweakening certain socio-economic aspectsof our society. The rapid ageing of thepopulation is turning the youngergenerations’ hair white, and with just cause.Today, we are forced to recognize that the number ofelderly people will perforce increase. By 2030, the percentageof Quebeckers aged 65 and over will doublefrom 12% to 24%, thereby resulting in higher socialcosts. All we have to do is to think of certain public servicesthat this segment of the population will requiremore of: the health care system, social services and theRégie des rentes du Québec, for example. But it is notjust the socio-economic factors applicable to allQuebec’s society that will be affected; democracy willbe as well. The number of seniors as compared to thenumber of young people will tip the scales in terms ofvoting power. Let’s see what the statistics reveal withrespect to this imminent impact.HEALTH ON A STRETCHERFirst, an ageing population means more health problems,medical consultations and, therefore, more governmenthealth spending. According to the Bureau dela statistique du Québec (BSQ), a senior costs the governmentroughly two times as much as a young person.And if we look at the demographic forecasts ofthe Institut de la statistique du Québec, a large increasein the 65-and-over group is expected, that is, anincrease of 122% which would swell the ranks to twomillion. Under certain projections, health and socialservices costs are expected to triple from $13 to $40 billionbetween 1998 and 2050, with costs for stays inlong-term care facilities topping the list.THE QPP HITS OLD AGE IN 2031The Régie des rentes du Québec, for its part, must besecretly fearing that its coffers will “go bald.” Eventhough all Quebec workers must contribute to its universalinsurance plan, it has become doubtful whetherthe money in the pension fund will be sufficient toensure the comfortable retirement of the younger generation.Yet, based on an actuarial valuation of theQuebec Pension Plan (QPP), assuming a 7% contributionrate in 1999 and successive increases prescribed bylaw, the Plan will be able to meet its obligationsthroughout the projection period, or until 2050.So much the better if the QPP is ready because, in 2031,the number of seniors should peak since it will consistin large part of the many generations born at the endof the 1950’s, reported Hervé Gauthier and LouisDuchesne in their book Le vieillissement démographiqueet les personnes âgées au Québec (1991). They add thattheir ranks could number between 1.9 and 2.0 million.As a comparison, Quebec’s population now stands atan estimated 7.3 million and is expected to grow to7.8 million in 2026. It should therefore come as no surprisethat the youth are worried about the money runningout by the time they retire, which explains theirgrowing fascination with complementary (private)plans, such as the well-known RRSPs, to ensure theirretirement fund. The advantage of this type of plan isthat it supplements the basic income pensionersreceive under the public plans.[1] Since April 1, 1999, the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ) groups the responsibilities and operations of the Bureau de laStatistique du Québec (BSQ), the Centre de recherche et de statistiques sur le marché du travail (CRSMT), the Institut de recherche et d’informationsur la rémunération (IRIR) and Santé Québec.
“IN MY TIME . . .”As for the population of voters, the electorate seemsto lean more and more towards grey power.According to a scenario developed by the BSQ andwhich is considered the most plausible, seniors willrepresent 27% of the total population in 2041 comparedto 12% today. In an article published in LeDevoir, February 18, 2000, Jacques Roy, a teacher atthe Cégep de Sainte-Foy, wrote that if, over time,poverty tipped the age pyramid from one extremeto the other, the same thing has happened to demographicgrowth. Outnumbering seniors at the beginningof the 1960’s six to one, the youth are almostequal in number today to senior citizens.This meansthat voting power–at least in terms of number ofvoters–has also shifted: seniors have more, youngpeople much less. But let’s not panic: we haven’t yetdeveloped into a gerontocracy.A GLIMMER OF HOPEAll things considered, if we wanted to redress thesituation, the fertility rate would have to rise from1.5 to 2.1 children per woman, which would helpmaintain the percentage of 65-year-olds and overat 20.8% rather than at 27.1% as is expected.However, current trends related to mortality and fertilitypoint to a proportion of roughly 25% of seniorsin the long term.To add to this worrisome situation,the most recent demographic forecasts publishedby the Institut de la statistique du Québec on January28, 2000, put forward that in 2026 there will be twomillion Quebeckers aged 65 and over, representinga very significant increase of 122%.Despite this rather gloomy picture of the rapidly ageingpopulation, there are however some more positivestatistics, such as life expectancy at birth whichcontinues to rise: on average, women live until theage of 81.5 and men until age 75.1, according to1997 BSQ statistics. At first blush, such data couldappear to be somewhat problematic, given the currentcontext. However, it also means that living conditionsare improving. As well, forecasts for tomorrow’sseniors reveal that pensioners will be bettereducated and that a greater proportion of retiredwomen will have worked, unlike their counterpartsof today.La liberté du kilométrage illimitép o u r t o u t e s l e s m a r q u e s d e v é h i c u l e s17Chez Location Park Avenue, toutes nos locations incluent lekilométrage illimité. Vous pouvez donc rouler tant que vousle voulez, sans avoir à payer de frais additionnels. De plus,vous avez le choix de prolonger, de renouveler ou de résiliervotre contrat de location en tout temps*.Présent partout au Québec !C’est ça, louer en toute liberté.* Certaines conditions s’appliquent.Appelez un de nos conseillers au(514) 899 90001 800 363 7312w w w . p a l . q c . c aprix de parc automobile avantageux, toutes les marqueset les modèles de véhicules,tableau d’amortissement mensuel,contrat personalisé, Service v.i.p., club de reventeAvril 200036ansDE SERVICE !louez... en toute liberté
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avril 2000 - Chambre de la sÃ©curitÃ© financiÃ¨re

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