Ed 31 - Swisscam

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04 economia brasileira brazilian economy "Lula light" - Ricardo Azevedo avalia possíveis cenários com o novo Governo "Lula light" - Ricardo Azevedo evaluates possible scenarios facing the new government Foto capa: Araquém Alcântara SWISSCAM Magazine / SWISSCAM Magazine Diretor do Magazine e de Comunicação Magazine and Communication Director Dr. Ernesto Moeri Coordenação Editorial / Editorial Coordination Ursula Bardorf tel.(55-11) 5507-4947 fax (55-11) 5505-4255 e-mail: ursula.bardorf@swisscam.com.br Anúncios / Advertisements Karina Spiller tel.(55-11) 5507-4947 fax (55-11) 5505-4255 e-mail: karina.spiller@swisscam.com.br Projeto Gráfico, Produção e Direção de Arte Editorial Design, Production and Art Direction Karsten Paul Mohr tel. (55-15) 9704 9132 Revisão e Tradução / Proofreading and Translation Carla Montagner John Fitzpatrick Regina Tanner Ursula Bardorf SWISSCAM Câmara de Comércio Suíço-Brasileira Swiss-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce Schweizerisch-Brasilianische Handelskammer Chambre de Commerce Suisse-Brésilienne em São Paulo: Avenida das Nações Unidas, 13.797 Bloco II, 21° andar 04794-000 São Paulo - SP - Brasil tel.(55-11) 5507-4947 fax (55-11) 5505-4255 e-mail: swisscam@swisscam.com.br no Rio de Janeiro Avenida Rio Branco, 110, 11° andar, Centro 20040-001 Rio de Janeiro – RJ – Brasil tel. 55 21 2509-7234 r.255 fax: 55 21 2509-7234 r.256 Representante / Representative Luciana Coelho e-mail: rio@swisscam.com.br Presidente / President Dr. Ernesto Moeri Vice-presidentes / Vice-Presidents Sr. Nelson Mussolini Sr. Carlos Faccina A Câmara de Comércio Suíço-Brasileira, constituída em 1945, é filiada à União das Câmaras de Comércio Suíças no Exterior e à Câmara de Comércio Internacional. The Swiss Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, founded in 1945, is affiliated to the Exterior Chambers of Commerce and the International Chamber of Commerce. A reprodução das notícias é permitida, contanto que seja mencionada a fonte. As opiniões contidas nos artigos não refletem necessariamente a posição da SWISSCAM. The reproduction of items is permitted as long as the source is mentioned. The opinions contained in the articles do not necessarily reflect the position of SWISSCAM. Impressão / Printing Imagix tel. (55-11) 5097 30 99 site: www.imagix.com.br www.swisscam.com.br 09 notícias da swisscam swisscam news Comitê de RH encontra-se na Clariant - lançamento do livro O Negociador Experiente, de Raymond Saner, no SENAC - empresas suíças participam da feira ambiental FIMAI – café-da-manhã com Delfim Netto - evento para associados Bronze - seminário sobre a inclusão de deficientes - Presidents' Club no Grand Hyatt São Paulo HR committee meets at Clariant – launch of Raymond Saner's book 'The Experienced Negotiator' at SENAC - Swiss companies participate in the FIMAI environmental fair - breakfast with Delfim Netto - event for SWISSCAM Bronze members - seminar on inclusion of disabled people - Presidents' Club at Grand Hyatt São Paulo 16 educação education O sistema de formação acadêmica suíço é um dos mais respeitados no mundo e atrai também jovens brasileiros Switzerland´s academic system is recognized as one of the best in the world and attracts young Brazilians 20 turismo tourism O Pico da Neblina é sinônimo de aventura, resistência, perseverança, dor e muita umidade The Pico da Neblina means adventure, stamina, endurance, pain and a lot of sweat 27 business class business class Motivar pessoas é a principal tarefa do líder - mas ser motivado é bem mais fácil para ele mesmo do que para os liderados por ele Motivating people is the main task of a leader - but to be self-motivated is much easier for him than for those he leads índice index Swisscam nº31 01/2003 3
economia brasileira brazilian economy 2003: Brazil under Lulalight How will the Lula administration look? The "softer" profile of the center, moderate in tone, conciliatory, that emerged during the election campaign? Or the radical left, combative, in favor of divisive solutions - so long the keynote cry by the PT (Workers Party)? by Rodrigo Azevedo T his is now the key question in evaluating scenarios for Brazil in the medium and long term. We expect to see it answered in the coming months, through the new administration’s actions and appointments during the transition period. Recent signs indicate that the PT will seek to establish a moderate profile. However, the transition period until the swearing-in in January, will offer several opportunities for Lula to gain confidence from investors on this light and moderate profile. Factors to focus on will be: (1) the profile of the cabinet members, in particular the names of the economic team, to be announced in early December; (2) the formation of the political base in Congress; (3) progress on the congressional agenda - in particular, regulation of the financial system, independence for the Central Bank, votes on the 2003 budget, the percentage adjustment to the minimum wage, and to wages of government workers, and (4) the PT government’s position on a potentially dangerous subject: debate on renegotiation of contracts for the debt owed by the state and municipalities to the federal government. This is a quicksand that could seriously weaken one of the pillars of the recent fiscal responsibility in Brazil. Another major test should be the new administration's position on negotiations with the IMF. An IMF mission recently visited Brazil to collect data for the first It will be difficult to sustain this "light" stance politically amidst an adverse environment of low growth, high unemployment and inflation pressures revision of the Brazilian program, with a view to release a US$3bn tranche. Since the macroeconomic variables involved in the program have behaved more adversely than expected, the resulting rise in the net debt/GDP ratio, and in inflation expectations, would recommend a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy. As monetary tightening is already in progress, the key discussion will be the need to increase the primary surplus target for 2003. It is likely that these negotiations will really be ended, though only during the second review of the IMF/Brazil program, in early February. The main thermometer for the restoration of confidence will be the path of the exchange rate. At its R$ 3.90/US$ level of October, the Real was undervalued by about 51% in real terms relative to its average for the last 3 years, and this helped to re-ignite fears of a return of inflation, and restructuring of public debt. If the light profile for the Lula government is confirmed, this could mitigate the pressures on capital flows, leading to a modest 4 Swisscam nº31 01/2003
Page 1: Educação: um produto de exportaç
Page 5 and 6: this context, the great challenge f
Page 7 and 8: FIMAI com participação suíça A
Page 9 and 10: Antônio Delfim Netto na SWISSCAM A
Page 11 and 12: larly: "It is important that disabl
Page 13 and 14: Comitê de Recursos Humanos reune-s
Page 15 and 16: chance para estudos na Suíça ou n
Page 17 and 18: ifpa: Instituto de formação profi
Page 19 and 20: O grupo de expedição na bacia aba
Page 21 and 22: Vegetação típica de floresta tro
Page 23 and 24: By Toyota jeep, we traveled 85 km b

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