Journal of Technical Analysis - Market Technicians Association

56
Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices 1
Samuel Benner
Panic
Jo u r n a l of Technical Analysis • 2008 • Issue 65
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Panics in the commercial and financial world have been compared to comets in the astronomical world. It has been said of comets that they have no regularity of
movement, no cycles, and that their movements are beyond the domain of astronomical science to find out. However, the writer claims that Commercial Revulsions
in this country, which are attended with financial panics, can be predicted with much certainty; and the prediction in this book, of a commercial revolution and
financial crisis in 1891 is based upon the inevitable cycle which is ever true to the laws of trade, as affected and ruled by the operations of the laws of natural
causes.
The panic of 1873 was a commercial revolution; our paper money was not based upon specie, and banks only suspended currency payments for a time in this crisis.
As it is not in the nature of things in succeeding cycles to operate in the same manner, the writer claims that the “signs of the times” indicate that the coming
predicted disturbance in the business world will be not only an agricultural, manufacturing, mining, trading, and industrial revulsion, but also a financial catastrophe,
producing a universal suspension of payments and bank closures.
It is not necessary to give a detailed account of the effects of disorderly banking in our colonial and revolutionary history, and the different panics prior to the
war of 1812, to establish cycles in commerce and finance.
Such a history would fill many pages without answering the purpose of this book, and would be as intricate and difficult to understand as the prices of stocks and
gold in Wall Street.
1 [Editor Note … Benner’s use of the word depression means bear market trend or economic contraction. The 1819 bank collapse from the cost of war, excess currency in circulation, and money moving
out of the country is well defined. Benner’s economic forecast for a recession in 1891, though written in 1884, is only off a year. The true brilliance is Benner’s cyclical analysis work throughout this book.
Benner’s book was first published in 1875 and is widely viewed as the first market analysis book written in North America. This excerpt begins on page 96 after a detailed study of high to low price cycles
in Steel, Hogs, Corn, and Cotton. Long term cycle analysts of today’s markets will find Benner provides annual market data from 1821 in this book.]