LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

Portsmouth. Subsequently, the fall is generally more modest, of the order of an
additional 3% points on average.
On the basis of this evidence therefore, we would expect growth in student
numbers to occur more outside the unitary authorities.
Once we look at the district level we might expect greater divergences (by the law of
large numbers), and this is true to some extent. Line charts such as those above
cannot adequately show the large number of district authorities, so we present the
population growth rates for districts in the form of bar charts. Figure 4 below shows
the histograms of the growth rates for 2013 and 2020 (both relative to 2006).
Figure 4: Trends in 16 and 17 year old population in SE districts and unitary
authorities.
(a) to 2013 (b) to 2020
Density
0 2 4 6 8 10
-.15 -.1 -.05 0 .05 .1
Population growth rate to 2013
Density
11
0 2 4 6
-.2 -.1 0 .1 .2
Population growth rate to 2020
In Figure 5 below we show a map of the South East district and unitary authorities 1 ,
coloured according to the absolute growth in population of 16 and 17 year olds over
the period 2006 to 2013. The map reveals that there are a few more authorities
with decreases (38) than with increases (25).
1 Appendix 5 contains a map with an associated list of district and unitary authorities, to assist identification.