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LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

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Figure 18: Net imports of students by local authorities<br />

Net imports between LAs<br />

4.10 Implications of travel to learn patterns for forecasting<br />

28<br />

Numbers<br />

800 800 - 3200<br />

0<br />

0-800<br />

- 800<br />

-550 -550 - 0<br />

-2000 - -550<br />

The overall evidence suggests that calculating population growth rates <strong>and</strong><br />

participation rates for district level authorities is only part of the information<br />

required. We also need to take account of travel patterns, as illustrated in Figure 18<br />

above. The interpretation could be ambiguous however. If we observe a projected<br />

increase in learners in a district that typically exports many of its learners, we could<br />

either conclude that the increase will likely be met by provision outside the borough,<br />

or that there is an additional argument for provision within the borough itself. This<br />

is, of course, a policy judgement. For authorities with large imports, the number<br />

taught will be larger than the resident population, possibly significantly so. Hence a<br />

large percentage increase relative to resident learners might not be so large when<br />

compared to numbers taught.

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