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46 2006 2015 Increase 2006-2015 Part Part Part District School College Indep time WBL Total School College Indep time WBL Total School College Indep time WBL Total Tandridge 697 527 371 61 71 1727 892 675 346 57 100 2069 195 148 -25 -4 29 342 Waverley 86 1613 528 79 91 2398 120 2235 465 69 121 3010 33 622 -63 -9 30 612 Woking 366 1146 402 76 88 2077 344 1079 369 70 121 1983 -21 -67 -33 -6 33 -94 Spelthorne 188 1240 406 82 97 2013 181 1196 377 77 136 1967 -7 -44 -29 -6 39 -46 Surrey Heath 670 910 380 54 65 2079 642 873 375 53 97 2041 -27 -37 -5 -1 32 -38
The figures in Table 9 are illustrated in Figure 21 below. Figure 21: Growth in full time learner numbers to 2015 Growth in full time learner numbers Numbers Numbers 497 497 - - 819 819 402 402 - - 497 497 383 383 - - 402 402 274 274 - - 383 383 245 - 274 245 - 274 197 197 - - 245 245 152 152 - - 197 197 78 78 - - 152 152 -169 -169 - - 78 78 This yields a similar map to that of Figure 20 for the growth to 2013. Alternative scenarios It is relatively easy to explore alternative scenarios using the model. We explore two in this report: (a) Assuming work-based learner numbers double by 2013 (instead of increasing by 50%) (b) Assuming 100% participation in some form of education or training by 2013/2015 The first of these increases the proportion of growth that is accounted for by WBL and may be a reasonable alternative to our central assumption, given that we must expect growth to come from students who have traditionally dropped out and are unlikely to want to follow more academic routes. However, it should be noted that this is a significantly larger increase than is implicit in government policy (which implies growth of about 50% by 2013). The impact of this alternative is to increase the numbers in WBL, obviously, and to decrease the numbers in school and college. The overall participation rate remains the same. These results are illustrated in Table 10 and it is perhaps most useful in seeing how changing this assumption affects the various projections. For example, in Aylesbury Vale (the first district in the table), the WBL number increases by 127 (we are comparing
Page 1 and 2: A report to the Learning and Skills
Page 3 and 4: Projections of post-compulsory educ
Page 5 and 6: • Section 8 provides some appendi
Page 7 and 8: education. For instance, there is e
Page 9 and 10: 3. Data sources We use four main so
Page 11 and 12: Figure 2: Trends in 16 and 17 year
Page 13 and 14: Figure 5: Growth in numbers of 16 a
Page 15 and 16: than those projected by ONS. The fi
Page 17 and 18: Density .05 .1 .15 0 60 70 80 90 10
Page 19 and 20: 4.5 Full time participation rates F
Page 21 and 22: 4.9 Travel to learn patterns The pa
Page 23 and 24: Figure 16: Students (16 and 17) rec
Page 25 and 26: Figure 17: South East students (16
Page 27 and 28: Thus Rushmoor, proportionately the
Page 29 and 30: 5. Modelling Having written in some
Page 31 and 32: est measure for estimating the over
Page 33 and 34: The precise formula we use is 2013
Page 35 and 36: accuracy of the results. This is no
Page 37 and 38: 6. Results The result of our modell
Page 39 and 40: 39 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Par
Page 41 and 42: Table 8: Districts with the largest
Page 43 and 44: Figure 20: Map of growth of full ti
Page 45: 45 2006 2015 Increase 2006-2015 Par
Page 49 and 50: 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Part P
Page 51 and 52: 51 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Par
Page 53 and 54: 7. Conclusions Our work has provide
Page 55 and 56: Maguire, S., and Thompson, J. (2006
Page 57 and 58: 57 Mangan, Adnett & Davies (2001) U
Page 59 and 60: 59 Gorard & Smith (2007) UK Maguire
Page 61 and 62: Lewes 2479 -145 -6% % Authority 200
Page 63 and 64: Maidstone 58000 61690 6% 3718 3472
Page 65 and 66: South Bucks 814 323 491 352 -139 67
Page 68 and 69: 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Part P
Page 70 and 71: 70 Note: It is assumed that WBL wil
Page 72 and 73: 72 Part Part Part District School C
Page 74 and 75: 74 30 29 43 33 20 42 23 22 17 31 40
Page 77: Projections of post-compulsory educ

LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

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