LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

leaving age from 14 to 15 in 1946 and from 15 to 16 in 1972 (Micklewright, 1989);
the provision of youth training schemes (Whitfield and Wilson 1991; Andrews and
Bradley, 1997); the introduction of GCSEs in England and Wales in 1986 and the
introduction of the national curriculum in 1988 under the Education Reform Act
1988. For instance, the introduction of the GCSEs was geared towards raising
educational achievement at 16 and improving participation in post-compulsory
education (Ashford et al. 1993; Gray et al. 1993). National targets for education and
training were also reinforced in the Dearing Report (1996) which provided further
impetus for the increase in participation in the early 2000s.
The expansion of the Higher Education sector has resulted in lower entry
requirements for higher education programmes and ‘role model’ effects across
successive cohorts have been cited as significant influences on post-compulsory
staying on rates (see, for example, McVicar and Rice, 2001; Gorand and Smith,
2007). More recently the introduction of Curriculum 2000 in England and Wales,
that gives students more choice and flexibility regarding their A level choice may
have also contributed to the recent rise in participation.
Finally, the introduction of the educational maintenance allowance (EMA) nationally
in England and Wales in 2004, for economically disadvantaged students or for
students experiencing some degree of social deprivation, has had a positive
impact on the participation rates of students with low socio-economic status
(Dearden, 2006), but may have impacted unfavourably on other learning
‘trajectories’ such as youth training (Maguire and Thompson, 2006). These
benefits are means tested and payable weekly, during school term only (for 2 years
or 3 for people with special education needs). There is also a
retention/achievement ‘bonus’ payable to those who are good attendees and meet
agreed learning targets.
2.5 Other analyses of learner numbers in the South East
We are aware of other analyses of learner numbers that have been made by or on
behalf of the LSC. Simon Winkworth for Hampshire LSC has produced a similar
analysis to ours, but differing in some details (e.g. it includes 18 year olds whereas
we include only 16 and 17 year olds) and not investigating such a wide range of
scenarios.
Sussex LSC has also commissioned work which is complementary to ours,
calculating numbers from a ‘bottom up’ approach. This is a model which is used
by Sussex LSC and individual colleges to forecast learner numbers, by using
assumptions about participation rates, progression rates, numbers of new
learners and market share. The tool allows different scenarios to be modelled
using historical evidence on specific patterns of participation in a local area and
travel to learn patterns. It includes data from FE Colleges, schools and work based
learning providers. In principle, if these were aggregated for all colleges, the
answers ought to be similar to ours. The model is not in use by all colleges so
cannot at this stage be used as a consistency check across all colleges in the
region.
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