LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

Another limitation is the quality and consistency of the data. Where different data
sources are used there is always a danger that differences in definitions, etc. will
cause inconsistencies between different sets of figures. Even within a single data
source there can be shortcomings; for example, the DCSF tables for participation
rates report that “due to rounding error” the participation rates for Wokingham and
Reading in 2005 amounted to over 100%. Given that the figures for both 2004 and
2006 record participation rates of 91% or less, this is some rounding error. We
have endeavoured to ensure the use of consistent data and methods and we do
know that the results are at least internally consistent within our model, something
which may not occur if projections are being made by a number of different parties.
Another point to note is that our forecasts apply to 16 and 17 year olds in the year in
question. Many of the 17 year olds will reach 18 during the year and, even after the
raising of the compulsory participation age, will then be entitled to leave school or
college. Hence we will have some attrition of these students during their final year.
We do not model this effect, on the grounds that provision would have to be made
for their participation at the start of the year and this determines the required
capacity of schools and colleges.
In addition to the model, we have done a range of other research into the
background of post-compulsory education, which will be useful in interpreting the
output of the model. For example, part of this work illustrates the flows of students
across local authority boundaries (including into and out of the South East as a
whole), demonstrating that it is not sufficient only to forecast the growth of resident
learners. Some of this is possibly as valuable as the model itself, and it reveals
that although a statistical model can produce forecasts, there is still an important
element of judgement that is required when deciding upon the implications for a
particular district.
The structure of our report is as follows.
• Section 2 provides a review of relevant economics literature, identifying
some of the factors that have been found to influence the decision to stay on
beyond the compulsory school leaving age.
• Section 3 provides a brief account of our main data sources.
• Section 4 then explores a range of contextual issues using a variety of
information sources. This provides useful background material for
interpreting the output of the model.
• Section 5 then explains the methodology we have used in our model and
how we have used the model to generate forecasts.
• Section 6 reveals the results of our modelling exercise and, importantly,
shows how these may be interpreted in the light of the contextual information
reported in section 4 above.
• Section 7 provides a conclusion.
3