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40 (e) Please note also the caution about census dates mentioned on page 27. (d) Participation rates for 2013 are based on projections forwards from 2006 rates, consistent with the target of full participation in 2013 or 2015 (16 and 17 year olds respectively). More detail is in the Methodology section. (c) Participation rates for 2006 are based on DCFS data (for counties and unitary authorities). Disaggregating to district level is done using information from PLASC and ILR databases, as described in the Methodology section. (b) Population figures for each district and year are obtained from the Office for National Statistics. (a) Learner numbers are calculated as number of 16/17 year olds in the local population participation rate. Notes on sources of data used to construct this table: 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Part Part Part District School College Indep time WBL Total School College Indep time WBL Total School College Indep time WBL Total Reigate and Banstead 621 1403 546 131 156 2858 654 1477 522 125 212 2991 33 74 -24 -6 55 133 Runnymede 359 676 291 61 71 1458 406 765 297 62 104 1635 48 90 6 1 32 177 Spelthorne 188 1240 406 82 97 2013 183 1208 384 78 132 1985 -5 -32 -22 -4 35 -27 Surrey Heath 670 910 380 54 65 2079 655 890 380 54 92 2071 -15 -20 0 0 27 -8 Tandridge 697 527 371 61 71 1727 865 655 348 57 95 2021 168 128 -23 -4 24 294 Waverley 86 1613 528 79 91 2398 114 2133 471 70 116 2904 28 520 -57 -9 25 507 Woking 366 1146 402 76 88 2077 349 1094 378 71 118 2010 -17 -52 -24 -5 30 -67 Guildford 947 994 551 116 131 2739 1149 1207 537 113 184 3190 202 212 -14 -3 53 451 Mole Valley 842 475 438 48 56 1859 948 534 421 46 77 2026 106 60 -17 -2 21 167
Table 8: Districts with the largest projected increases in learners District School College Increase 2006-2013 Total school plus college Indep Part time WBL Total Net imports % growth of housing stock Milton Keynes 460 280 740 -1 -4 145 879 -46 25% Medway 411 244 655 -15 -20 124 744 185 Elmbridge 190 458 648 23 4 46 720 3124 Aylesbury Vale 394 164 559 -5 -10 117 661 111 14% Waverley 28 520 548 -57 -9 25 507 256 Thanet 281 210 491 3 3 121 618 -186 Isle of Wight 266 191 457 3 2 146 606 -117 8% Horsham 141 310 452 15 6 62 534 -52 11% Canterbury 302 148 451 -18 -7 61 486 1943 Dartford 235 180 416 2 3 59 479 2250 20% Guildford 202 212 415 -14 -3 53 451 1646 New Forest 92 321 412 -3 -4 109 514 2062 Mid Sussex 126 269 394 -5 -2 53 440 -891 12% Swale 251 138 389 -3 0 79 466 -801 Ashford 245 139 385 23 10 89 507 -385 23% Arun 156 196 352 -1 0 73 424 -1714 Winchester 3 346 349 -2 -7 112 451 1983 11% Shepway 205 141 346 -2 -1 51 394 -189 Eastbourne 5 339 343 0 0 46 389 834 Windsor and Maidenhead 238 102 340 -104 -15 33 255 228 Sevenoaks 229 94 323 -16 -4 40 342 -1635 Tonbridge and Malling 229 93 322 -14 -4 54 358 1398 9% Maidstone 226 95 321 -15 -5 63 364 514 Hart 40 262 302 -1 -1 40 341 -1530 Tandridge 168 128 296 -23 -4 24 294 -280 Test Valley 1 293 294 -2 -5 75 363 -1352 9% East Hampshire 5 288 293 -6 -6 62 343 -567 Wealden 160 128 288 -18 -3 37 303 -1335 Tunbridge Wells 217 69 285 -17 -3 37 302 146 Rother 41 236 276 4 1 48 330 -172 Wokingham 181 92 273 -11 -6 82 337 -1327 8% West Oxfordshire 169 98 267 -20 -9 56 294 -65 8% Chichester 105 158 262 12 6 58 339 2151 8% Basingstoke and Deane 15 243 257 1 6 159 424 506 12% Lewes 33 210 243 -9 -5 40 268 787 Crawley 140 99 239 0 -1 58 296 684 8% Hastings 61 170 231 -2 -2 52 279 -217 Bracknell Forest 113 114 228 -65 -24 23 163 -576 11% West Berkshire 156 58 214 -64 -21 62 191 92 8% Dover 134 65 200 -18 -7 48 223 -498 Because we should go beyond looking at a particular district in isolation, it may be helpful to look at a map of the projected increases in numbers, shown in Figure 19
Page 1 and 2: A report to the Learning and Skills
Page 3 and 4: Projections of post-compulsory educ
Page 5 and 6: • Section 8 provides some appendi
Page 7 and 8: education. For instance, there is e
Page 9 and 10: 3. Data sources We use four main so
Page 11 and 12: Figure 2: Trends in 16 and 17 year
Page 13 and 14: Figure 5: Growth in numbers of 16 a
Page 15 and 16: than those projected by ONS. The fi
Page 17 and 18: Density .05 .1 .15 0 60 70 80 90 10
Page 19 and 20: 4.5 Full time participation rates F
Page 21 and 22: 4.9 Travel to learn patterns The pa
Page 23 and 24: Figure 16: Students (16 and 17) rec
Page 25 and 26: Figure 17: South East students (16
Page 27 and 28: Thus Rushmoor, proportionately the
Page 29 and 30: 5. Modelling Having written in some
Page 31 and 32: est measure for estimating the over
Page 33 and 34: The precise formula we use is 2013
Page 35 and 36: accuracy of the results. This is no
Page 37 and 38: 6. Results The result of our modell
Page 39: 39 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Par
Page 43 and 44: Figure 20: Map of growth of full ti
Page 45 and 46: 45 2006 2015 Increase 2006-2015 Par
Page 47 and 48: The figures in Table 9 are illustra
Page 49 and 50: 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Part P
Page 51 and 52: 51 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Par
Page 53 and 54: 7. Conclusions Our work has provide
Page 55 and 56: Maguire, S., and Thompson, J. (2006
Page 57 and 58: 57 Mangan, Adnett & Davies (2001) U
Page 59 and 60: 59 Gorard & Smith (2007) UK Maguire
Page 61 and 62: Lewes 2479 -145 -6% % Authority 200
Page 63 and 64: Maidstone 58000 61690 6% 3718 3472
Page 65 and 66: South Bucks 814 323 491 352 -139 67
Page 68 and 69: 2006 2013 Increase 2006-2013 Part P
Page 70 and 71: 70 Note: It is assumed that WBL wil
Page 72 and 73: 72 Part Part Part District School C
Page 74 and 75: 74 30 29 43 33 20 42 23 22 17 31 40
Page 77: Projections of post-compulsory educ

LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

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