LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

The implication of this is that there are off-setting errors: if one district’s rate is
under-estimated, another’s must be overestimated. Since, over time, these are
converging towards compulsory participation in 2023/2015, this implies off-setting
forecasts of growth in numbers: if it is under-estimated in one district, it is likely to
be over-estimated in another within the county.
Use of the data with our methodology
Any methodology of forecasting, not just ours, has to be internally consistent when
it comes to the forecast. The numbers for a district must add up to the total for the
county, and that the sub-components must add up to the overall participation rate.
This means that, inevitably, some items have to be treated as a residual, and
calculated as such. This can result in large proportionate errors in this residual,
particularly if it is a small item. This may not matter too much if the item is not of
interest per se, such as the numbers in independent schools. However, the growth
of this from the estimated value in 2006 will then influence the values of other
variables and lead to uncertainty in the forecast.
Overall, we believe we have made the best use that we can of the data available.
Our model’s estimates are at least internally consistent. However, it would be
useful if further research could shed light on some of the issues where data are
missing or where there are puzzling anomalies between data series.
A comment on NET/NEET data
It would be useful to make use of NET/NEET data (Not in Education or Training/Not
in Education, Employment or Training) in construction of the participation rates, or
as a check. However there are some formidable problems of consistency between
the various series. The figures are published by DCFS in the Statistical First
Release Series but are not disaggregated to the local level. This can be done
using data from the Connexions service, but this is not directly comparable to the
SFR series due to differences of definition of the series and because Connexions
is only aware of some, not all, persons within the NET category. The local
breakdown is available for the NEET series, but to be compatible with our series
we should use the NET series, which is the complement of our participation rate.
Furthermore, the NEET rates are based on the numbers in schools and colleges in
each district, not on the basis of residence, which is what is used in this report.
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