LSC South East - lsc.gov.uk - Learning and Skills Council

3. Estimate the overall participation rates for 2013/2015 for each district
For modelling purposes, we presume that the school leaving age is raised to 17 in
2013 and to 18 in 2015, in line with government proposals. We interpret
‘compulsory schooling’ to mean a participation rate of 98% rather than 100%, on
the grounds that even if compulsory, there will be a minority who will not participate.
Evidence from DCFS (Statistical Release: Pupil Absence – Autumn 2008 Term
Report (Provisional), 6 May 2008) suggests that 0.7% of pupils in the South East
may be regarded as persistent truants, this figure ranging from 0.4% in
Buckinghamshire to 1.3% in Southampton. This figure applies across the
secondary sector and it is therefore likely that the figure is higher towards the end of
compulsory schooling. We therefore feel justified in assuming a figure of around
2% once the age is raised to 17 and then 18.
(We also report the outcome of assuming a 100% participation rate in all
authorities as one alternative scenario, though we believe this is less realistic than
our central projection.)
Not all authorities will be at precisely 98% however, so we allow authorities to vary
around this figure in 2013/2015. We calculate the future overall participation rates
as follows. We have the 2006 participation rates for district and unitary authorities
from steps 1 and 2. We then assume that participation rates grow in line with the
patterns identified earlier for 1998-2005, with lower participation authorities (in
2006) following a faster rate of growth. There is a convergence of participation
rates from the bottom up. Hence we specify a narrowing of the range of
participation rates over the period. For 2006 we have a mean participation rate of
86% and a range of 35% points (between 65% and 100%). For 20013, we set the
mean to 98% and the range to 17% points (half its value in 2006) for 16 year olds.
In schematic form we have the following mapping of participation rates:
2006
100%
86%
65%
100%
98%
2013
83%
The halving of the range is a matter of judgement, based on the observed
diminution of the range between 1998 and 2005 and the need to be spread around
a higher average of 98%. Again, this assumption can be adjusted within the
spreadsheet to explore alternative scenarios.
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