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5.2.2 Model structure<br />

The manufacturer submitted a model <strong>in</strong> Micros<strong>of</strong>t Excel. A two stage modell<strong>in</strong>g approach<br />

was adopted. A decision tree was used to model treatment <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> acute phase (surgery to 90<br />

days post surgery) and a Markov process model was used to model <strong>the</strong> long-term events (90<br />

days post surgery and beyond). The differential effects <strong>of</strong> treatment are only realised <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

acute phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> model. The decision tree and long-term Markov model are depicted <strong>in</strong><br />

Figures 5.1 and 5.2 respectively.<br />

Figure 5.1 Decision tree (Fig 8 MS-page128)<br />

Note: O<strong>the</strong>r deaths refer to non-VTE and non-treatment-related deaths.<br />

Abbreviations: THR, total hip replacement; TKR, total knee replacement; VTE, <strong>venous</strong> <strong>thromboembolism</strong>; PE, pulmonary<br />

embolism; DVT, deep ve<strong>in</strong> thrombosis; Sym/Symp, symptomatic, Asym, asymptomatic; Tmt, treatment<br />

37<br />

Copyright 2011 Queen’s Pr<strong>in</strong>ter and Controller <strong>of</strong> HMSO. All rights reserved.

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