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the adaptation imperative – exploring the planning response John Handley and Jeremy Carter explain why adaptation to climate change is vital for our towns and cities, and look at the role of planning for green and blue infrastructure in moderating the risks associated with a changing climate Climate change is one of the most widely researched of the major challenges facing humanity. Natural and social scientists have collectively built a strong canon of data and analysis that, among other things, highlights a strong adaptation imperative. The GRaBS project brought together a group of 14 organisations from eight member states to develop proactive responses to the risks and potential opportunities associated with the projected changes to the climate. This article provides an insight into why the project was conceived – in effect to respond to the adaptation imperative that faces urban areas – and considers the issue of planning for this agenda. A particular focus is placed on green and blue infrastructure approaches in the context of adaptation. The experiences of the partners working within the GRaBS project demonstrate that just as climate risks vary across spatial scales and jurisdictions, so do approaches to planning for climate change. The adaptation imperative Although there are doubtless other important considerations, there are certainly four key issues that are central in understanding the adaptation imperative – i.e. the need to develop a framework of integrated and spatially appropriate adaptation responses to address the risks and potential opportunities associated with a changing climate. These are: ● Significant and accelerating climate change over recent decades, raising the prospect of rapid and severe climate change. ● A downward revision of thresholds for significant impacts relative to global temperature rise. ● Greater appreciation of the complexity of the global climate system. ● Evidence of rapid carbonisation of economies and societies. Significant accelerating climate change over recent decades, raising the prospect of rapid and severe climate change Recent studies reported in Nature 1 demonstrate through analysis of Antarctic ice cores dating back 800,000 years that two key greenhouse gases (GHGs) (carbon dioxide and methane) have, looking back over that period, not reached recent atmospheric levels. Concentrations of these gases over the last several centuries have increased at a pace far beyond that seen before humans began to intensively clear forests and burn fossil fuels. With the links between the release of GHGs through human activities and recent climate change now well established, 2 it becomes easier to explain the changes in climate and weather patterns that are now being recorded. A study of recent climate change observations compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 252 Town & Country Planning 2011 June 2011 : GRaBS Project – INTERREG IVC; ERDF-funded
projections found that: ‘The data now available raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly than climate models indicate.’ 3 Numerous examples can now be cited of shifts in climate and ecological systems that reflect these recent changes. They include the more rapid melting of Antarctic ice and increased hurricane and cyclone activity. The message emerging from the climate science community is that the chance of keeping temperatures no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels – the guardrail over which organisations including the European Commission agree constitutes ‘dangerous climate change’ – is at best low. 4 Indeed, one recent study states that if GHG emissions were frozen at 2005 levels, we are already committed to 2.4°C warming (within a range of 1.3°C-4.3°C) above pre-industrial levels. 5 Recent research raises the prospect of rapid and dangerous climate change at levels of 4°C and beyond above current levels. 6 A downward revision of thresholds for significant impacts relative to global temperature rise At the same time that scientists are projecting the increased likelihood of higher-end climate change, research is also suggesting that harmful impacts linked to this change could be felt at lower levels of temperature rise than was previously expected. In 2008, an update was produced for the IPCC’s ‘Reasons for Concern’ assessment, which was originally developed eight years earlier. 7 More commonly known as the ‘burning embers diagram’, the assessment reflects an understanding of the potential impacts associated with different levels of global temperature rise on five factors thought to represent key risks linked to a changing climate. The five reasons for concern are: ● risk to unique and threatened species; ● risk of extreme weather events; ● risk of large-scale discontinuities (for example disruption to the Gulf Stream); ● aggregate damages (principally measured in monetary terms); and ● the spatial distribution of impacts. Comparison of the updated burning embers diagram against the original demonstrates that in the case of each reason for concern, the risk of negative impacts is now greater at lower levels of global temperature rise. This risk is assessed as ‘substantial and severe’ for all five reasons for concern at a global mean temperature rise of just less than 3°C above 1990 levels, and in three cases at a level around 1°C above this baseline. Given the recent projections for a temperature rise of 4°C and beyond, 6 the magnitude of the risks associated with climate change become clear. Greater appreciation of the complexity of the global climate system A key reason that the prognosis from climate scientists is looking increasingly worrying relates to a greater appreciation of the complexity of the global climate system. The notion that humans may be able to control the global climate is likely to be misplaced, and instead the chances are that the climate will govern our behaviour, as it has done for millennia. The biophysical processes influencing the global climate are not fully understood, which challenges the ‘dose-response’ relationship approach around which climate policy is framed. ‘Comparison of the updated burning embers diagram against the original demonstrates that in the case of each reason for concern, the risk of negative impacts is now greater at lower levels of global temperature rise’ An appreciation of the complex and non-linear processes involved calls into question the idea that we can ‘stabilise’ the climate through achieving a defined level of emissions reduction. 8 Central to this is the issue of positive feedback loops, which work to intensify a variable or process. They may not be positive or desirable in terms of their impact, which is the case with climate science, where positive feedbacks are increasing GHG emissions and intensifying climate change impacts. Examples include the melting of the polar ice sheets and the replacement of reflective ice with sea and/or land which absorbs solar radiation, leading to further warming; and tundra melt with associated release of methane, which is a far more potent GHG than carbon dioxide. Evidence of rapid carbonisation of economies and societies The failure of the 2009 Copenhagen Summit (COP15) to reach a common consensus on reducing GHG emissions means that post-2012, after the end of the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, there will be no global mechanism in place for managing GHG emissions. Although some commentators argue that top-down mechanisms such as this may not be the most appropriate way of managing emissions, the policy vacuum that we find ourselves in at all scales is associated with a period of unprecedented global carbonisation. Town & Country Planning June 2011 : GRaBS Project – INTERREG IVC; ERDF-funded 253
Page 1 and 2: The Journal of the Town and Country
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Page 5 and 6: inside stories Town and Country Pla
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Page 9 and 10: enough is enough Pickles chants:
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Page 17 and 18: Building adaptive capacity Review e
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Page 61 and 62: going local tcpa publications mail
Page 63 and 64: connections Paul Burall on recyclin

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