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66 Economic Analysis (2010, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, 61-69) b) the international bond market is relatively narrowly structured, financial institutions constitute 80% of the market, businesses, governments or international institutions account for the rest 20%, c) the choice of currency has been significantly influenced by entrepreneurial motives (control of balance, project financing, taxes) and by short-term cyclical factors (exchange rate predictions and interest rate differential). The international bond market, from the perspective of the narrow supply of debt instruments, does not have such a significant impact on the evaluation of the currency position as on the international currency. In a broader definition of supply of debt instruments, however, its impact on the role of currency in an international context is more significant, according to the IMF data; up to 11.2 trillion USD bonds are held abroad out of the total volume of bonds (18.4 trillion U.S. dollars), whereas in the narrow definition, it is only 7.8 trillion USD. In comparison, foreign holdings of shares account for 8.8 trillion USD. Graph 5. Issuance of Bonds with variable rates of interest by Currency Denominations 9000000 8000000 7000000 6000000 bil. USD 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 Dec.2000 Dec.2001 Dec.2002 Dec.2003 Dec.2004 Dec.2005 Dec.2006 Dec.2007 Dec.2008 Sep.2009 US dollar Euro Yen Pound sterling Sw iss franc Canadian dollar Other currencies Floating rate total Source: author’s own processing, data from www.bis.org
Kotlebova, J., Future Stance of Currencies in the IMS, EA (2010, Vol. 43, No, 1-2, 61-69) 67 Graph 6. Issuance of Bonds with fixed rates of interest by Currency Denominations 18000000 16000000 14000000 12000000 bil. USD 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 Dec.2000 Dec.2001 Dec.2002 Dec.2003 Dec.2004 Dec.2005 Dec.2006 Dec.2007 Dec.2008 Sep.2009 US dollar Euro Yen Pound sterling Swiss franc Canadian dollar Other currencies Straight fixed rate total Source: author’s own processing, data from www.bis.org The previous graphs can be used to monitor that the euro is used as a currency denomination of bonds to a much greater extent than the USD. This tendency in the world started to create the euro in 2002 (commercial papers and bonds with floating interest rates), in the case of other debt securities, two years later, in 2004. The biggest difference with the preference of the euro as denomination against the USD has been recorded in bonds with variable interest rate. A few years ago, there were concerns about a tripolar monetary system in which three currencies were to play a key role - USD, EUR and the Japanese yen. The current approach to the usage of currencies in the bond, foreign exchange and commodity markets in the world, however, suggests an entirely different trend. Graph 7. Development of the main pair USD/EUR 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 I/99 V/99 IX/99 I/00 V/00 IX/00 I/01 V/01 IX/01 I/02 V/02 IX/02 I/03 V/03 IX/03 I/04 V/04 IX/04 I/05 V/05 IX/05 I/06 V/06 IX/06 I/07 V/07 IX/07 I/08 V/08 IX/08 I/09 V/09 IX/09 Source: author’s own processing, data from www.ecb.int
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PUBLISHER Institute of Economic Sci
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C O N T E N T S The Upsurgence of C
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