Sustainability Report - Bank Sarasin-Alpen

Solar Energy 2005
Grand coalition
Export business
increasingly important
Short and mid-term forecast for
the PV market in Germany
The change of government following premature elections most probably does
not signify any dramatic worsening of the conditions for government subsidies. A
consensus still exists between the two coalition parties concerning the promotion
of solar energy, particularly since approximately 30,000 people are now employed
in Germany’s solar industry.
Irrespective of what happens with the new government, it would be wise for
Germany’s solar companies to use the period up to 2007, when the next regular
review of feed-in tariffs is scheduled, to reduce their dependency on the German
market by building up their export business. Important export markets include
Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and Cypress. Some of these countries
have also created subsidy programmes for solar installations. The growing market
potential of India and China should also provide attractive opportunities for
German solar companies. Our forecast shows a gradual convergence between
German production and installed domestic capacity (see Fig. 9). It is therefore
essential for the German solar industry to expand its international distribution
network and significantly increase its export quota.
In view of the expansion plans of German module producers, we expect production
capacities to rise over the next three years from 200 MW (y/e 2004) to 350
MW (2005) and almost 410 MW (2006). Over the same period module production
is set to increase from 174 MW (2004) to 300 MW (2006). If we add up the
2006 capacity forecasts published by the module producers, total production capacity
would work out at around 600 MW. Companies would therefore be well
advised to carefully review their capacity expansion plans. Otherwise they will
find it difficult to maintain in the long run the 100% capacity utilisation that many
of them currently enjoy, especially in view of the shortage of solar-grade silicon
discussed previously. We expect slightly moderated growth in the number of installed
systems in Germany. Annual newly installed capacity is likely to rise from
363 MW (y/e 2004) to 440 MW (+21% in 2005) and 505 MW (+15% in 2006).
Fig. 9: Short and mid-term forecast for the PV market in Germany
700
Module production p.a. Production cap. at y/e Annual installed PV capacity
600
500
MWp
400
300
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: BSi, IEA-PVPS 2005, company information and Sarasin estimates
The circle of listed solar
companies is growing
Investors have benefited from Germany’s solar boom as well. Shares in German
solar companies have been surging ahead in recent months. Many companies
seem to want to take advantage of the industry’s positive trend to float on the
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