Sustainability Report - Bank Sarasin-Alpen

Solar Energy 2005
Executive Summary
Photovoltaics
Last year global photovoltaic (PV) cell production rocketed more than 60%,
from 750 MW in 2003 to well over 1,200 MW. The fifteen biggest PV cell manufacturers
were responsible for roughly 90% of the total production volume.
Fears of a world wide silicon shortage came true, and this has already curbed
the rate of growth in 2004. New agreements have been reached between the
photovoltaics industry and silicon manufacturers to increase production capacities
for solar-grade silicon, and these capacities should come on stream during
the course of 2008. But even then the supply bottleneck will not be fully removed.
In future we are bound to see ingot and wafer producers enter into more
joint ventures with silicon manufacturers in an attempt to ensure their own silicon
requirements are met.
This persistent shortage will force companies to develop new processes that
consume fewer materials. These efficiency improvements will have a positive
impact on costs. Except for a number of niche applications, photovoltaics will
continue to rely on government subsidies, however. Apart from the three biggest
markets of Germany, Japan and the US, other countries now have substantial
programmes in place to promote solar energy, including Spain, China, India, Italy,
Portugal, South Korea and Thailand.
In 2004 the amount of PV capacity installed worldwide came to 840 MW,
which corresponds to around two-thirds of solar cell production. This is equivalent
to 40% growth on last year. Germany’s installed capacity (360 MW) overtook
Japan’s (270 MW) for the first time, mainly thanks to the higher feed-in tariffs.
The uncertainty in the German market about possible cuts in these generous tariffs
has been allayed following the recent elections. No changes are expected
until 2007 at the earliest, when the Renewable Energy Act (EEG) comes up for
regular renewal.
In the coming years the markets that currently dominate will become less important
in relative terms. According to our estimates, Germany’s share of the global
market, for example, will drop from its current level of 43% to just 6% in 2020.
Within Europe, Spain is becoming increasingly important, while in Asia the big
markets include not only China and India, but now also Thailand and South Korea.
The fact that more than two billion people in the world still have no access to
mains electricity clearly demonstrates the enormous potential of photovoltaics in
future. In the longer term, off-grid applications are more compatible with the sustainable
character of photovoltaics than heavily subsidised megawatt installations
built on greenfield sites industrialised countries. There is thus a pressing
need to push ahead more with supplying electricity in Africa, Asia and elsewhere,
before photovoltaics comes up against its limits in the western world.
Another challenge for photovoltaics is the avoidance of hazardous substances
such as lead and cadmium in the manufacture of PV installations, and the establishment
of take-back systems for equipment that has reached the end of its
working life. As a form of renewable energy that still has a spotless “green im-
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