Sustainability Report - Bank Sarasin-Alpen

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Solar Energy 2005 The market received an additional boost from the change in the incentive rules as of 1 July, which gave lower subsidies for small systems but higher subsidies for space heating systems. We predict full-year growth of 21% in newly installed systems. Our forecasts of newly installed capacity for the German market are 637 MW th for 2005 and 700 MW th for 2006. The government target of 7 GW th cumulative solar collector capacity by 2006 will probably not be achieved. We predict around 5.26 GW th . In recent years there have been big fluctuations in the entire solar collector market in Germany. The market shares of individual players have oscillated wildly as well. The position of the two leaders, Buderus and Viessmann, has been fairly constant and uncontested. Wagner came third in 2003. Winners in recent years include Sonnenkraft, Wolf and Schüco (see Fig. 23). Cost reductions have also been made in recent years following more industrialised manufacturing and economies of scale in marketing and distribution. Increasing concentration is also apparent in production, while at the same time distribution is now extending more over to providers of traditional heating boilers. Fig. 23: Market shares of manufacturers and providers of flat-plate collectors in Germany in 2004 (total 480 m 2 MW th , or 91% of total market). Other Importers pro solar Westfa (G-o-T) VELUX (Foco) Viessmann Importers: 34% Brötje (G-o-T) Manufacturers 66% SUNSET (Chromagen) Buderus Sonnenkraft (G-o-T) Selbstbauer (inkl. BUSO) Schüco Sunset (Chromagen) Solvis Wagner KBB Wolf NA U Vaillant Citrin Other Manufacturers Underlying data: W.B. Koldehoff, October 2005. OEMs in brackets (G-o-T: GreenOneTec) Difficult situation in solar heating In Germany the attractive payments for solar energy fed into the mains grid seem to have made solar heating slightly less popular with owner occupiers. But high oil and gas prices are helping to reverse this trend. According to a survey of 1,700 plumbing and heating installation firms conducted by Europressedienst 19 , most customers cite cost savings as the main motive for purchasing a solar heating system. The Regenerative Heat Act (Regeneratives-Wärme-Gesetz, RegWG), which the industry hopes will be introduced soon, would provide additional support. By imposing a carbon tax on the use of conventional forms of energy such as oil and gas, this law aims to provide a financial incentive for producing heat from renewable sources. But the government is also considering an 19 Perspektiven der Solarthermie in Deutschland 2005/06, Europressedienst EuPD, Bonn, July 2005 Dezember 2005 40
Solar Energy 2005 ordinance that makes the use of solar-powered heating systems compulsory when building new single- or multi-occupancy dwellings, or imposes an obligation to use such systems. But it will be at least a couple of years before such regulations provide new stimulus to Germany’s solar heating market. As far as climate protection is concerned, solar heating definitely deserves more support, since specialist publications show that when in service a solar collector saves well over twice as much CO 2 (relative to area) than a comparable PV system. Greece Saturation point reached? Last year many existing solar heating systems were replaced, resulting in 151 MW th of newly installed capacity. This is equivalent to 34% growth on last year. Greece therefore took Austria’s place as number two in new installations. The cumulative capacity of 180 kW th per 1,000 inhabitants is already the second highest after Israel, so a certain amount of saturation is likely. Additional stimulus could come from the wider promotion of systems for solar-assisted cooling. Our forecasts of newly installed capacity for the Greek market are 119 MW th for 2005 and 126 MW th for 2006. Austria Austria becomes the biggest exporter of solar collectors Market forecast for Austria up to 2010 The positive market growth that Austria has enjoyed since 2000 continued in 2004. Last year glazed collectors with a capacity of approximately 350 MW th were produced in Austria (2003 production: 285 MW th ). In 2004 around 65% or collectors produced were exported, compared to 59% in 2003 20 . Austria’s GreenOneTec is Europe’s biggest producer of flat-plate collectors. The company operates around two-thirds of Austria’s entire production capacity. The domestic market volume for glazed collectors was 128 MW th (117 MW th in 2003), which is 9.4% higher than last year. Cumulative capacity of 1,460 MW th was in service at y/e 2004. Subsidies vary from one federal state to another. They average around EUR 4,900 for a solar system providing heating support (20 m 2 collector area, 1,500 l storage tank). Austria’s solar heating market posted average annual growth of 15% during the period 1990-2000. If additional market impulses managed to fuel this growth up to 2010, Austria would have almost 2,800 MW th collector capacity installed in this Kyoto target year. Total sales in the solar heating industry would rise to EUR 318 m per year (2004: EUR 178 m). The CO 2 reduction achievable every year would therefore be almost one million tonnes. Our forecasts of newly installed capacity for the Austrian market are 140 MW th for 2005 and 151 MW th for 2006. Switzerland Solar heating market: Trend reversal confirmed Last year a total of 21.8 MW th new capacity was installed in Switzerland. 21 This is equivalent to 16% growth on last year. The installation rate has therefore increased for the second consecutive year. The lion’s share (96%) was flat-plate collectors. Previous sales figures were only higher in 1998 (22.2 MW th ). High energy prices, coupled with the campaign to promote solar energy launched two years ago, seem to be making an impact and confirm the trend reversal 20 21 Solarmarkt in Österreich 2004, Austria Solar, www.austriasolar.at Solar - Schweiz. Fachverband für Sonnenenergie, market survey 2004; www.solarpro.ch Dezember 2005 41
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