Sustainability Report - Bank Sarasin-Alpen

Solar Energy 2005
The insert in the next box outlines the special criteria that have to be met in order
to exploit this enormous potential:
Criteria that PV systems have to meet for use in non-OECD countries
Selling PV systems to developing and newly industrialised countries carries certain risks for
all parties involved. Ultimately photovoltaics are certainly the cheapest solution in rural areas,
because the energy requirement of each individual is so small that it is not economical
to install or extend a mains supply. But the direct purchase of a PV system by the end users
is usually not an option either, as they do not have the necessary financial means. Many of
them are used to spending USD 3-10 of their tiny household budget every month on candles,
kerosene or batteries. But there is seldom any financial institution available to offer micro
credit (USD 300-500) for such a major investment. Another stumbling block is the creditworthiness
of the end user. This problem can be solved with the help of international
development agencies, such as the KfW development bank or the World Bank.
Another obvious difficulty is that even though the technical quality of the systems may be
good, minimum regular maintenance is still required and this has to be organised locally. To
be successful in this market, companies therefore need adequately qualified local staff. The
cost of training these people cannot usually be recouped through the sale of PV systems. In
this case close collaboration between the industry and institutions for technical collaboration,
such as GtZ or KfW, can be of mutual benefit. With this in mind, the industry association
Club for Rural Electrification was set up in 2000 under the leadership of the Fraunhofer-
Institut Solare Energiesysteme ISE in order to promote rural electrification through renewable
energies.
One of the defining characteristics of successful rural electrification projects is therefore that
sufficient consideration is also given to social aspects and to the fact that ultimately advanced
technology will need to be integrated into a society that is not usually technically
oriented. This market holds enormous potential for the solar industry. Simply supplying 1%
p.a. of the non-electrified population with 10 W of power per person equates to a market
volume of 200 MW per year. If, taking into account all the components and services, we assume
a price of roughly EUR 10 per watt in an off-grid PC system, this corresponds to potential
annual sales of EUR 2 billion.
Felix Holz, Fraunhofer ISE, Institut Solare Energiesysteme, Head of Group
Off-Grid Power Supply Systems, Freiburg (Germany).
PV market trends up to 2020
Approx. 1,100 MW of new
capacity installed in 2005
2010: newly installed PV
capacity of 3.0 GW
According to our estimates, around 840 MW of new PV capacity was installed in
2004 and this year the figure will be around 1,100 MW. This is equivalent to a
growth rate of 30%. Our long-term forecast shows the development of new PV
capacity installed globally every year, rather than annual PV cell production
(as in last year‘s report). We based our forecast on the market estimates for the
most important countries. The historical data are based on information from IEA-
PVPS. The annual comparison shows that the PV capacity actually installed is
much lower than the figure for solar cell production. One plausible explanation
for this, however, is the time lag between the production of PV cells and the installation
of complete PV systems, at the same time as growth rates are soaring.
This year, and in the next 2-3 years, the installed capacity will be curbed by the
availability of PV modules, which is in turn due to the shortage of solar-grade
silicon. The silicon supply bottleneck should improve after 2008. For 2010 we
forecast around 3.0 GW of newly installed PV capacity worldwide. This corresponds
to an average annual growth rate of 23.6% for the period 2004-2010.
Dezember 2005 26