Sustainability Report - Bank Sarasin-Alpen

Solar Energy 2005
Higher interest rates. Because of the high capital costs associated with PV
systems, rising financing costs due to higher interest rates exert their full impact
on total costs, which could dampen demand. This is particularly true for
commercial operators of PV systems.
Increasing competition from their own camp in the form of alternative solar
technologies such as solar power stations (see chapter 3).
Threatening energy crisis
implies upside potential
Diminishing resources and soaring prices in the oil market could promise additional
upside potential for solar energy. There has been a marked increase in
governments’ willingness to promote renewable energies through incentives
such as feed-in payments or tax breaks. In addition, conventional energy production
is generally becoming more expensive, so the gap with solar energy is narrowing.
In the field of hybrid systems, photovoltaics can either replace or supplement
diesel generators. Here the price of oil has a direct influence on demand for PV
systems. This market is limited mainly to the USA and developing countries, and
is only of secondary importance compared with the currently dominant gridconnected
applications.
For thermal solar energy use, the costs of fossil alternatives (usually heating oil)
are an even more important factor than for photovoltaics. This economic substitution
mechanism is showing its first measurable results, since the oil price has
been so high for a long time and because people think it will remain at that level.
Conclusion: Modest but
steady growth over
the longer term
In the longer term, however, the opportunities afforded by photovoltaics are still
far from being exhausted. The easing of growth rates caused by the silicon bottleneck
helps to prevent the market from overheating and therefore encourages
healthy growth in the long run. We expect costs to be significantly reduced as a
result of advances in manufacturing methods (bigger units, automation) and
various new technologies reaching market maturity. This should allow production
capacity to revert to the growth path it has shown since the end of the nineties.
According to this scenario, the annual installed capacity will therefore more than
quadruple from 3.0 GW in 2010 to around 15.5 GW in 2020. This is equivalent to
an annual average growth rate of 18%.
Fig. 14: Sarasin’s long-term forecast for the global PV market
New ly installed p.a. (left scale)
Annual grow th rate (right scale)
16000
80%
14000
70%
12000
60%
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Newly installed p.a. [MW]
50%
40%
30%
Annual growth rate
20%
10%
0%
Source: Sarasin, 2005
Dezember 2005 28