Liquidity provision in the overnight foreign exchange market

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ysis presented above. As the two price cointegration vectors are equivalent, we use the vector estimated using Non-Financial positions, as presented in Table 3. Using the price vector with Financial positions would not alter any results. To utilize the fact that we have access to daily data, we apply a standard GMM procedure to account for the fact that we have overlapping observations when we look at changes beyond one day. Table 4: Flows and returns 5 days 30 days 90 days coef. t-stat. coef. t-stat. coef. t-stat. Constant 0.11 4.23 ** 0.49 4.86 ** 1.13 6.57 ** ∆Financial 0.0037 4.02 ** 0.0055 5.41 ** 0.0071 5.30 ** ∆RDIF10Y 3.18 12.61 ** 3.08 7.50 ** 2.99 7.13 ** ∆RDIF3M 0.80 2.88 ** 0.79 1.79 0.64 1.58 COINT(-n) -0.05 -4.21 ** -0.21 -4.81 ** -0.49 -6.48 ** R 2 0.30 0.50 0.72 5 days 30 days 90 days coef. t-stat. coef. t-stat. coef. t-stat. Constant 0.11 4.10 ** 0.48 4.34 ** 1.14 5.85 ** ∆Non-Financial -0.0030 -3.05 ** -0.0052 -4.85 ** -0.0067 -5.03 ** ∆RDIF10Y 3.19 12.19 ** 3.22 7.18 ** 3.23 7.05 ** ∆RDIF3M 0.83 2.93 ** 0.88 1.83 0.74 1.55 COINT(-n) -0.05 -4.08 ** -0.21 -4.32 ** -0.50 -5.85 ** R 2 0.29 0.48 0.69 Sample: 1.1994-6.2002. The table shows a GMM regression on (log(SEK/EUR) t − log(SEK/EUR t−n ), where n indicate the number of days over which we measure the return; 5, 30 and 90 days respectively. Similarly, “∆” in front of a variable indicates change from t −n to t. Net positions in currency are measured in SEK 10 billion. “Financial” is net positions of Financial customers, “Non-Financial” are net positions of Non-Financial customers. RDIF10Y is the difference between the yield to maturity for Swedish and German bonds with ten years to maturity. Similarly, RDIF3M is the difference between Swedish and German 3-month interest rates. Coint(-n) is the error correction term from the cointegration analysis. The cointegration vector is lagged with n periods. Estimations are made using daily data and overlapping samples. They are estimated using GMM, with a weighting matrix that equals the set of exogenous variables, and standard errors are calculated using a variable Newey-West bandwidth. **(*) Statistical significance at the 1%(5%) level. Table 4 reports regressions of changes in the foreign exchange rate on currency flows of Financial and Non-Financial customers for the 5-day, 30-day and 90-day horizon. As is clear from Table 4, the sign on the coefficient for Financial customers is positive and significant at all horizons reported. The coefficient increases from 0.37% at the 5-day 20
horizon to 0.71% per SEK 10 billion at the 90-day horizon. These numbers are economically significant. For instance, at the 30-day horizon the standard deviation of currency flows of Financial customers is 12 billion SEK. An increase of one standard deviation in the net flow of Financial customers will then, on average, imply an increase in the foreign exchange rate of 0.66%. For comparison, the standard deviation for changes in the foreign exchange rate over the 30-day horizon is 2.33%. The coefficient for the error correction term is negative and significant for all horizons reported. At the five-day horizon, return to the long-run equilibrium takes place by 5% in each period. For the 30-day and 90-day horizon, the adjustment to the long run equilibrium takes place by 21% and 49% in each period, respectively. The coefficient for changes in the ten-year interest rate differential is positive and significant for all time horizons. An increase in the ten-year interest rate differential may signal expectations of higher inflation in Sweden relative to Germany and the other eurocountries. The strong correlation between the exchange rate and the 10-year interest rate differential in Sweden is well known in the Swedish market and is mainly due to the fact that when Sweden emerged from recession in the early 1990’s, the interest rate spread narrowed and the exchange rate strengthened. The coefficient for changes in the threemonth interest rate differential is only significant at the five-day horizon. The coefficient is positive, which means that an increased interest rate differential is consistent with a depreciating SEK. The explanatory power is very good. The regressions explain as much as 30-72% of all variation in the dependent variable. In the lower part of Table 4, we replicate the estimations, only substituting flows of Financial customers with flows of Non-Financial customers. As we see, the coefficient for Non-Financial customers is also highly significant for all time horizons. The co- 21
Page 1 and 2: Discussion Papers No. 391, Septembe
Page 3 and 4: 1 Introduction The provision of liq
Page 5 and 6: positive correlation between net pu
Page 7 and 8: demand for a currency and the value
Page 9 and 10: atically fill the role of overnight
Page 11 and 12: dealers will adjust their prices. W
Page 13 and 14: In the traditional portfolio balanc
Page 15 and 16: ency when the bond returns in Swede
Page 17 and 18: 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 1994
Page 19 and 20: as non-stationary in order to get t
Page 21: of customers is weakly exogenous to
Page 25 and 26: .012 .004 .008 .000 .004 -.004 .000
Page 27 and 28: Table 5: Flows, returns and short r
Page 29 and 30: clude that Non-Financial customers
Page 31 and 32: Assume that Financial customers buy
Page 33 and 34: the steady-state long run. The perm
Page 35 and 36: Carlson, J. A. and C. L. Osler (200
Page 37 and 38: Recent publications in the series D

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